海水养殖风力指数保险设计及费率厘定研究——以广东省为例  

On the Design of a Wind Speed Index-Based Mariculture Insurance and Related Premium Rating—A case study of Guangdong Province

作　　者：李亚琦[1] 韩兴勇[1] 岳宗胜 

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306 [2]西安交通大学数学与统计学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《海洋经济》2016年第3期3-9,共7页Marine Economy

基　　金：上海海洋大学科研基金项目[D_8006-12-0067]

摘　　要：为了破解海水养殖保险的发展困境，解决其在推广过程中的道德风险问题，设计了以达到规定风速为保险责任的海水养殖风力指数保险。用风速来衡量海水养殖台风灾害的损失程度，并基于weibull分布提供了该保险的费率厘定方法。以广东省为例．运用weibull分布模拟出广东省沿海12个地级市11。15级台风发生的概率。结合不同风级下海水养殖的平均损失率，厘定出12市的海水养殖风力指数保险费率。结果表明：海水养殖风力指数保险费率水平普遍较高且差异较大，汕尾、茂名和湛江在10％以上；惠州、深圳、珠海和阳江处于6％-10％之间；潮州、汕头、揭阳、中山和江门在4％～6％之间。最后提出了促进海水养殖气象指数保险发展的相关建议。This study designed a maricuhure insurance based on the wind speed index, for purposes of breaking through the development plight of mariculture insurance and solving the moral hazard problems during the promotion. In this insurance, the insurance liabilities were tenable in the case of typhoon reaching the stipulated wind speed and the maricuhure loss degree caused by typhoon was evaluated by the wind speed of typhoon. Moreover, the premium rate of this insurance was formulated on the basis of Weibull distribution. Subsequently, Guangdong Province was taken for example to stimulate the occurrence probabilities of typhoons of force 11-15 in 12 coastal prefecture-level cities of this province using Weibull distribution. According to the simulation results and the mean loss rate of maricuhure under typhoons of different forces, this study formulated the premium rates of the wind speed index-based mariculture insurances of the 12 cities. It was found that the premium rates presented high levels generally and great differences in the 12 cities; Shanwei, Maoming, and Zhanjiang took a proportion of 10% above; Huizhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Yangjiang lay in a range of 6%-10%; Chaozhou, Shantou, Jieyang, Zhongshan, and Jiangmen accounted for 4%-6%. Finally, some suggestions were put forward for the development of meteorological index-based mariculture insurance.

关 键 词：海水养殖 台风 指数保险 WEIBULL分布 保险费 

分 类 号：F84[经济管理—保险]