城镇化进程中居民消费对水资源消耗的影响效应研究  

Study on the Impact of Residents' Consumption on Water Resource Consumption in the Progress of Urbanization

作　　者：秦腾[1] 章恒全[1] 佟金萍[2] 马剑锋[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100 [2]常州大学商学院,江苏常州213164

出　　处：《软科学》2016年第12期29-33,共5页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BGL097;15BGL128);2014年度江苏高校"青蓝工程"优秀青年骨干教师培养对象项目;2016年度江苏普通高校学术单位研究生科研创新计划项目

摘　　要：构建向量形式的Kaya扩展模型,运用LMDI方法将用水总量分解为人口规模、人口城镇化、居民消费、消费抑制因子、技术进步和产业结构调整6种效应。研究表明:用水总量的增长主要来自于居民消费的贡献,尤其是城镇居民消费引起的间接耗水的增长;人口规模和人口城镇化对用水总量的增长具有持续的正向作用,且人口城镇化的驱动力要强于人口规模;消费抑制因子对用水总量的影响经历了由正到负的过程,与用水总量之间存在反向变动的逻辑关系;技术进步与产业结构调整对用水总量的增长呈现出持续的抑制效应,但是变动幅度较小,凸显出当前我国技术进步和产业结构调整在节水方面的乏力。虽然居民消费极大地推动了用水量的增长,但是由于居民消费在整体国民经济中具有用水强度的比较优势,因此提高居民消费水平并不违背水资源的节约目标,同时施以节水技术创新和产业结构改善等手段,能够实现水资源的可持续发展。With Kaya model in vector form and LMDI method,this paper decomposes the change of water consumption into6 factors,such as population scale,urbanization,residents＇ consumption,consumption restraint,technological progress and industrial structure adjustment. Results show that growth of water consumption is mostly caused by residents＇ consumption,especially the growth of indirect water consumption induced by urban consumption. Population scale and urbanization present continuing positive effect on water consumption,and the effect of urbanization is bigger than population scale. The effect of consumption restraint goes through positive to negative,and presents reverse relationship with water consumption.Technological progress and industrial structure adjustment present continuing negative effect on water consumption,however,annual variation is small,which highlight weakness of technological progress and industrial structure adjustment in water conservation. Although residents＇ consumption greatly promotes water consumption,due to the comparative advantage of water intensity in whole national economy,elevating residents＇ consumption level is not against water-saving target. To realize sustainable development of water resource,the water-saving technique innovation and industrial structure improvement should be adopted in the meanwhile.

关 键 词：人口城镇化 居民消费 水资源消耗 因素分解 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]