我国汽车行业出口贸易的影响因素及出口潜力研究——基于面板数据模型的实证分析  

Research on the Influencing Factors and Export Potential of China's Auto IndustryExport Trade Potential——Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Models

作　　者：何奕[1] 程凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学,成都611130

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2016年第12期130-136,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于复杂网络视角的中国外资经济产业空间结构研究"(项目编号:71303192)

摘　　要：自新中国成立以来,我国汽车行业经过了几十年的发展,现在已经开始大量走出国门。本文利用与我国汽车贸易最密切的34个国家,通过构建扩张的引力模型,对影响我国汽车出口的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:距离、GDP、互惠贸易、总产量等都对我国汽车行业出口贸易有显著影响。在此基础上,对我国汽车行业的出口潜力进行预测,并提出相应的对策建议。From the People＇s Republic of China founded,Chinese automobile industry had developed in decades,it started to go abroad in great quantities,and this paper is to study the influence factors of China＇s auto industry export trade and export potential.This article uses the automobile trade with China＇s closest 34 countries,building the expansion of gravity model,the effect factors of China＇s auto exports has carried on the empirical analysis.The results found that distance,GDP,fair trade,production for export trade has significant impact on China＇s automobile industry.On this basis,the potential for the export of China＇s auto industry has carried on the simple prediction,and finally puts forward that China should develop the domestic industry and its economy,actively promoted a free trade agreement to reduce the distance factors hinder the role of trade between the two countries,and open up new markets,efforts to find opportunities for the export of Chinese auto industry.

关 键 词：汽车行业 出口贸易 扩展的引力模型 出口潜力 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]