国际资本流动、金融发展与技术溢出效应关系研究——对1991-2013年全球73个国家和地区的实证检验  

Research on the Relationship among International Capital Flow,Financial Development and Technology Spillover Effect:Based on the Empirical Study of Seventy-three Countries and Regions from 1991-2013

作　　者：陈创练[1,2] 张年华[1] 陈经纬 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]华南师范大学(香江)国际金融研究中心 [3]澳门新濠天地(澳门新濠博亚娱乐有限公司)

出　　处：《产经评论》2016年第6期116-132,共17页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"不同基础条件下资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究"(项目编号:71303081;项目主持人:陈创练);全国统计科研计划项目"非线性动态面板平滑转换回归模型:理论建模与金融应用"(项目编号:2013LY084;项目主持人:陈创练);中国博士后基金面上项目"资本账户开放的金融风险及管理研究"(项目编号:2013M540669;项目主持人:陈创练);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"汇率调整之谜和我国经常账户失衡研究:微观基础与动态效应"(项目编号:12YJC790006;项目主持人:陈创练);广东省软科学研究计划项目"广东省区域资本配置效率驱动高科技产业转型升级的动力和路径研究"(项目编号:2016A070705046;项目主持人:陈创练);广东省软科学研究计划项目"广东省高科技制造业产融结合效率及转型升级方向研究"(项目编号:2014A070704011;项目主持人:陈创练);华南师范大学哲学社会科学决策研究项目"国家一路一带战略中港澳的地位与作用研究"(项目编号:JCYJ1507;项目主持人:陈创练)

摘　　要：随着资本账户的逐步开放,境外资本流入流出等外部效应对国内生产效率的影响变得日益突出。国际资本的进出流动是否有利于本土技术进步?抑或只是改进东道国的技术效率?有待深入研究。以随机前沿函数和无效率效应模型为基础构造随机边界模型,利用1991-2013年全球73个国家和地区的数据,实证分析资本账户开放下,国际资本流动以及金融发展水平对技术效率和全要素生产率的影响效应。结果表明:直接投资和证券投资降低了生产无效率,提高了技术效率;其中,直接投资流入对东道国技术效率改进的影响并不显著,但直接投资流出则对本国技术效率改进有显著的逆向溢出效应。同时证券投资流入和流出分别对本国技术效率改进具有显著的正向溢出效应和逆向溢出效应。Under the background of capital account liberalization, the external effects of capital inflows and outflows on the domestic production efficiency has become increasingly prominent. Is the international capital flows in and out promoting the local technical progress？ Or just improving the technical efficiency of the host country？ This paper uses stochastic frontier model to study the technology spillover effect of seventy - three countries and regions during 1991 to 2013. The estimated results show that direct investment and portfolio investment reduce the inefficiency of production, and improve the efficiency of technology. The effect of direct investment inflow on technology efficiency is not significant, whilst there is a backward spillover effect of direct investment outflow on technology efficiency, and portfolio investment inflow and outflow respectively have forward and backward spillover effect on technology efficiency. In particular, capital account liberalization also presents an effective improvement to the technology efficiency. In addition, the development of financial market also expands the resource of domestic capital, and then improves the technology efficiency through promoting capital flows. The estimated results also show that education has a positive effect on technical efficiency and total factor productivity. Savings rate has a negative effect on the technical efficiency, whilst positive effect on TFP. Percapita GDP and population growth rate both have positive effect on technical efficiency, but high rate of population growth would be has a negative impact on total factor productivity, indicating that the initial endowment and the accumulation of human capital act as two important factors to improve the technical efficiency. At last this paper puts forward some policy enlightenments.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 随机前沿模型 国际资本流动 技术效率 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]