基于水文气象分区线性矩法的淮河流域极值降雨频率分析  

Frequency Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin Based on Hydrometeorological Regional L-moments Method

作　　者：邵月红[1] 吴俊梅 李敏 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用水文气象研究院,江苏南京210044 [2]昆山气象局,江苏昆山215300 [3]海门气象局,江苏海门226100

出　　处：《水文》2016年第6期16-23,共8页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：江苏省青年基金项目(BK20141001);淮河流域气象中心开放项目(HRM201502);江苏省气象局青年科研基金项目(Q201602)

摘　　要：以淮河流域为研究区,利用地区线性矩法进行站点极值降雨的频率分析。研究结果表明:基于气象成因和水文统计特性相结合的方法将研究区划分为6个通过异质性和不和谐性检测的水文气象一致区。在此基础上,通过蒙特卡罗模拟、均方根误差和线性矩系数的相关图综合判断得出各时段下6个一致区下的最优分布。其中,24h时段下的最优分布分别为:GEV、GNO、GLO、GEV、GLO、GEV。利用最优分布计算出淮河流域各站点一整套(多时段多重现期)的频率估计值。其中,最大值分布在沂蒙山区,这与站点的实际观测相一致。水文气象分区线性矩法是一种稳健可靠的频率分析方法,可应用于其它流域。Taking the Huaihe River Basin as the study object, frequency analysis of extreme precipitation was analyzed by means of the regional L-moments method in this paper. The results show that six hydrometerological homogeneous regions are formed based on the meteorological factor and hydrological statistical properties, which pass the heterogeneity and discordance measurement. Next,we determined the optimum distribution from different durations for each region using Monte Carlo simulations, the root mean square error and L-moment ratio diagram. The optimum distributions for the 24-hour duration are GEV, GNO, GLO, GEV, GLO and GEV. A complete set of quantile estimates for various durations（24-hour, 3-day, 5-day and 7-day） and return periods（from2-year to 1000-year） can be obtained by using regional L-moments method in the Huaihe River Basin. The highest frequency estimates were observed in the northeast Yimeng mountainous area, which is in the agreement with the observation. It provides a robust and reliable method for frequency analysis, which can be applied to other regions of China.

关 键 词：水文气象分区 线性矩法 极值降雨 频率估计值 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]