船撞概率参数敏感性分析  

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Ship Collision Probability

作　　者：尚军年[1] 耿波[1] 

机构地区：[1]招商局重庆交通科研设计院有限公司,重庆400067

出　　处：《公路交通技术》2016年第6期28-31,共4页Technology of Highway and Transport

基　　金：重庆市应用开发(重大)项目(csct2013yykf C30001)

摘　　要：介绍国内外船撞桥碰撞概率的计算方法,对目前我国现有指导桥梁船撞设计的地方标准《重庆市三峡库区跨江桥梁船撞指南》中船撞概率的计算方法进行详细说明,确定影响碰撞概率的因素,并通过分析、筛选进一步确定不受主观意识影响的因素。以实际工程为背景,分析筛选出的因素对船舶碰撞桥梁概率的敏感度,为今后该指南的修编提供参考。The calculating method of ship bridge collision probability at home and abroad is introduced in this paper, and the calculation method of ship collision probability in the Guide of Three Gorges Reservoir Area Crossing-river Bridge in China is described in detail. The factors that affect the probability of collision are determined. By analyzing and screening,further determine the factors that are not affected by the subjective consciousness. From the practical engineering background,the sensitivity of the screened factors to the ship collision probability is analyzed,to provide reference for the revision of the guide.

关 键 词：船撞桥 碰撞概率 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：U442.3[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]