改进灰色理论在海上交通事故预测中的应用  

Study on Maritime Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on Improved Grey Model

作　　者：陈昌源[1] 戴冉[1] 牛佳伟 黎泉[1] 吴祖新[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《船海工程》2016年第6期67-71,共5页Ship & Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61401057);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132015016;3132015017);马六甲和新加坡海峡超大型船舶航行风险分析及对策研究项目(01831508);海上交通安全风险研究(80714003);基于海事宽带业务的DTN网络资源自适应分配优化策略研究

摘　　要：为了提高海上交通事故预测精度,实现对海上交通事故的准确预测,构造一种改进的灰色预测模型,对传统的灰色预测模型GM(1,1)基本原理和预测精度进行阐述,建立灰色预测模型;引入弱化算子序列对灰色预测模型进行改进,在已有的二阶弱化算子研究的基础上,设计一种改进的灰色预测模型,很大程度上提高了传统灰色预测模型的精度;以2004—2014年海上交通事故数为基础,进行传统灰色模型预测、二阶弱化模型预测和改进模型预测,并绘制出3种预测模型的实际值和预测值的拟合曲线图;结果表明:改进模型的4项预测精度指标和拟合曲线都较另外2种模型要好,能够真实反映海上交通事故的未来发展趋势。In order to improve the prediction precision of maritime traffic accidents,an improved grey prediction model was constructed. After elaborating the basic principle and the prediction precision of traditional grey prediction model GM（ 1,1）,the grey prediction model was set up,and the weakening operator sequence was introduced to improve the grey prediction model. On the basis of existing studies on second-order weakening operator,a kind of improved grey prediction model was designed to improve the accuracy of the traditional grey prediction model. In terms of maritime traffic accidents from 2004 to 2014,the traditional grey model prediction,the second order weakening model prediction and improved model prediction were carried out,and the actual value in three kinds of prediction model and the prediction fitting curve were mapped. The results show that four indicators of the improved model accuracy and curve fitting is better than that of the other two model,which can reflect the future trend of the development of maritime traffic accidents.

关 键 词：改进灰色模型 海上交通事故 预测 精度 弱化算子 

分 类 号：U692.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] X951[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]