我国经济增长、能源消费、贸易开放度、城镇化和碳排放之间关系——以东部地区为例  

The Relationship between Economic Growth,Energy Consumption,Trade Openness,Urbanization and CO_2 emissions in China——A Case in East China

作　　者：刘晓红[1,2] 江可申[1] 魏洁云[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]南京晓庄学院商学院,江苏南京211171 [3]徐州工程学院管理学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《系统工程》2016年第9期81-88,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203097);教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(10YJC790005);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ_0106);江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学研究指导项目(2016SJD790011);江苏省高校"青蓝工程"

摘　　要：采用中国东部11省（市、区）1995-2012年的面板数据，基于FMOLS方法，考察了经济增长、能源消费、贸易开放度、城镇化和CO2之间的关系。实证研究发现：①我国东部地区GDP的平方和C02排放之间存在倒U型关系，支持环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说；②从短期来看，GDP、贸易开放度是CO2排放的单向的格兰杰原因；城镇化是CO2的双向格兰杰原因；能源消费、贸易开放度是GDP的单向格兰杰原因；能源消费是贸易开放度的单向格兰杰原因；GDP是贸易开放度的双向格兰杰原因；能源消费、贸易开放度是城镇化单向的格兰杰原因。③误差修正模型的每个等式系数都通过显著性检验，说明在长期内，CO2、能源消费、实际GDP、贸易开放度和城镇化这五个变量之间存在着双向的格兰杰因果关系。最后，针对我国实际，提出政策建议。Based on the FMOLS method, this paper examines the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization for the 11 province （city, area） in East China using the panel data for the period of 1995-2012. The empirical results show that.. （1） There is an inverted U-shaped rela- tionship between GDP square and carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern region of China, supporting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. （2） There is a short unidirectional panel causality running from GDP, trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization to GDP, from energy consumption and GDP to trade openness, from carbon dioxide to urbanization. There are bidirectional Granger causality from urbanization to trade openness, from GDP to trade openness. （3）The estimated coefficients of lagged error correction term in the carbon dioxide, economic growth, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization equations are statistically significant, which shows that between these five variables there are bidirectional Granger causality relationship in the long run. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions according to the reality of our country.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 CO2排放 经济增长 能源消费 贸易开放度 城镇化 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]