TPP关税协议对中美GDP影响的实证研究  

An Empirical Study on the Impacts of TPP's Tariff Agreements on GDP of China and America

作　　者：余自强[1] 蒋艳萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《亚太经济》2016年第6期3-9,共7页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目"全球产业链转移新趋势下的中国出口价值链提升举措研究"(15ZDA061);国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目"后金融危机时代中国参与全球经济再平衡的战略与路径研究"(11&ZD008)的资助

摘　　要：以GTAP模型为基础建立计量模型,利用1992-2014年中美两国时间序列数据估算了GDP对关税的弹性,进而得出TPP关税协议对中美GDP的影响。结果表明:中国GDP对关税的弹性显著为负,假如中国加入TPP并按要求完成关税削减,GDP增速将增加4.33个百分点。考虑到9年过渡期,相当于这9年间年均GDP增速增加0.48个百分点;美国由于产品技术优势,GDP增速会因TPP关税协议在10年过渡期内年均增加0.72个百分点。因此,TPP关税协议符合中国利益,中国应以积极姿态面对TPP谈判。Based on the GTAP model, this paper develops an econometric method to estimate the elasticity of GDP on tariffs of China and the United States using the time series data of China and America from 1992 to 2014, from which the impacts of TPP＇s tariff agreements on GDP of these countries were derived. Empirical re- sults show that： the elasticity of China＇s GDP on the tariff is significantly negative. If, in a condition that China has joined TPP, and the import tariff of China is reduced in accordance with the agreement of TPP, the GDP growth in China will increase by 4.33 percentage. Considering that there is a transition period of tariff reduc- tion, the growth rate of GDP in China will increase over 0.48 percentage per year averagely during the 9-year transition period, while the United States will enjoy a GDP growth rate increase of 0.72% respectively each year during the 10-year tariffs cutting transition period due to its advantage in product technology. Thus, China ought to hold a positive attitude towards TPP negotiations on account that the TPP tariff agreement is in line with China＇s interests.

关 键 词：TPP 关税 GTAP模型 GDP 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]