美联储加息对世界经济的冲击效应分析  

The Impact of Fed's Increasing of Interest Rate on World Economy

作　　者：周睿[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所博士后流动站(理论经济学) [2]江苏省社会科学院区域现代化研究院,南京210013

出　　处：《亚太经济》2016年第6期22-29,共8页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金第58批面上资助项目阶段性成果之一,项目名称为“中国提高贸易便利化水平的经济效应模拟”

摘　　要：采用全球向量自回归模型(GVAR)评估了美联储加息对包括中国在内的世界经济的冲击效应。评估结果认为尽管美联储加息对各国宏观变量的影响有所不同,但是整体来说,美联储加息会导致实际GDP增加、汇率贬值、债券融资成本提高、通货膨胀下降、国家大宗商品的价格下降。本轮美元加息尽管可能会诱发巴西、南非等国爆发经济危机,但是诱发美国自身经济危机的可能性较小。我国在应对美联储本轮加息的政策冲击时,仍然要坚持解决经济发展中存在的深层次问题作为优先选择。Every time the Fed increased the interest rate, it would make an great impact on world economy. In this paper, we use Global Vector Auto-regression （GVAR） model to evaluate the impact of Fed＇s increasing of interest rate on global economy including China. The result indicates that although the impacts of Fed＇s increas- ing of interest rate on macro-variables of countries are different. But in general, the Fed＇s increasing of interest rate leads to the increase of real GDP, depreciation of exchange rate, increase of the bond financing cost, decrease of inflation and decrease of international commodity price. The current round of the increase of US dollar＇s in- terest rate may induce the economic crisis in Brazil, South Africa and other countries, but it is not likely to in- duce American＇s economic crisis. In response to the policy choice of China＇s government is to solve the deep problem shock of Fed＇s increasing of interest rate, the optimal existed in the economic development.

关 键 词：全球向量自回归模型 美联储加息 经济危机 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]