两岸在全球价值链中的分工地位和依赖关系——基于TiVA数据的实证分析  

The Position of Division and Dependence Relationship of Cross-straits in the Global Value Chain: Based on the Empirical Analysis of TiVA Data

作　　者：段小梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2016年第12期93-105,共13页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"我国开放型经济转型升级路径研究"(项目编号:13BJY009);主持人:段小梅;教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"长江上游地区内陆开放型经济中的外商投资影响效应研究"(项目编号:13JJD790047);主持人:段小梅

摘　　要：附加值贸易核算比传统的贸易统计方式更能真实地反映国家和地区在全球价值链中的地位和获利。基于此,文章通过对附加值的原理进行理论解析,利用WTO-OECD的Ti VA数据,测算了大陆和台湾地区在全球价值链中的地位和依赖关系。研究结果表明:两岸以附加值角度统计的出口额均大大缩水,台湾地区更甚;两岸在全球价值链中的参与指数均很高,但地位指数均较低;从上游依赖度和最终需求贡献率来看,两岸目前虽均对世界主要发达国家的依赖度较高,但正在逐步减弱,而对新兴发展中国家的依赖度呈上升趋势。全球经济版图正在重构,大陆的作用和地位不可小觑;两岸应大力加强产业合作,继续推进ECFA后续协商,共同提升在全球价值链中的地位,携手应对不确定的国际经济。台湾地区如果一味推行"新南向政策",将难以奏效,并会加大未来台湾地区经济运行风险。Trade in value added accounting is more realistic than the traditional trade statistics to reflect the status and profit of the countries and regions in the global value chain. In this paper we analyze the theory of value added,then we use data of TiV A provided by WTO-OECD to estimate the position of division and dependence relationship of cross-straits in the global value chain.The results show that: the export volume based on the value added has shrunk significantly in cross-straits,with Taiwan shrunk more than The Mainland; the participation index of cross-straits in the global value chain is very high,but the status index was low. From the view of upstream dependence and the rate of final demand contribution,although cross-strait has a high degree of dependence on the main developed countries,it is gradually weakening,and the dependence on emerging countries is on the rise.In the future,the global economic landscape is reconstructing,and the role and status of China's Mainland should not be overlooked. Cross-straits should enhance industrial cooperation,continue to promote the ECFA following-up consultations,enhance the status of global value chain jointly,and work together to deal with the uncertain international economy. If Taiwan blindly implement ' the New South policy',it will not work but increase the risk of Taiwan's economic operation.

关 键 词：全球价值链 附加值贸易 两岸贸易 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]