养老系统监管效果定量评估仿真研究  

The Simulation Research on the Quantitative Evaluation of the Effect of the Pension System Supervision

作　　者：徐志立[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京青年政治学院计算机系,北京100102

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2016年第12期449-452,共4页Computer Simulation

基　　金：北京市社科规划课题-首都智慧养老服务模式研究(2015-2016)(14SHB006)

摘　　要：对养老系统监管效果准确的定量评估,可降低社会养老成本。进行监管效果定量评估时,需要从不同层面描述系统养老系统监管风险等级,计算各层面养老系统监管风险的权重向量和监管后果的影响最大值完成评估。但是传统方法通过组建模糊判断矩阵,利用遗传理论进行求解建立评估模型,但是不能对老系统监管风险等级进行有效划分,无法准确对监管风险的权重和监管后果影响最大值进行计算,降低了评估的准确性。提出一种基于模糊理论的养老系统监管效果定量评估方法。上述方法先将养老信息监管风险分为资产影响、威胁频度、脆弱性严重程度三个不同的层面,从不同层面描述系统养老系统监管风险等级,融合模糊理论构造各个层面所对应评判集的隶属度矩阵,计算各层面养老系统监管风险的权重向量,并确定各个层面养老系统监管后果的属性类型,计算出养老系统监管后果的影响最大值,利用上述值完成对养老系统监管效果定量评估。仿真结果表明,所提方法能够较好地进行养老系统监管效果定量评估,有效地提升了养老系统监管效果定量评估的精度。In this paper, we proposed a quantitative evaluation method of supervision effect in pension system based on the fuzzy theory. Firstly, the supervision risk of pension information was divided into three different levels of property influence, threat frequency, and vulnerability severity degree and described the supervision risk grade from different levels. Then the membership matrix corresponding to judgement set at different levels was built integrated with the fuzzy theory and the weight vector of supervision risk was calculated. Moreover, the attribute type of supervision consequences was confirmed in different levels. Finally, the author worked out the influence maximum of supervision consequences and used the maximum value to complete the quantitative evaluation of supervision effect. The simulation results show that the method mentioned above makes better quantitative evaluation. It can improve the evaluation precision effectively.

关 键 词：养老信息系统 监管效果 定量评估 

分 类 号：TP393.08[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]