基于政府最低交通量担保的高速公路PPP项目价值研究  

Study on Highway PPP Projects Value Based on Government Minimum Traffic Volume Guarantee

作　　者：秦敏[1] 秦中伏[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,杭州310058

出　　处：《世界科技研究与发展》2016年第6期1315-1321,共7页World Sci-Tech R&D

基　　金：浙江省建设科技专项资金(2016)资助

摘　　要：在对公私合营模式(PPP模式)的高速公路项目价值进行研究时,使用传统的评估方法(净现值)计算常常会忽略项目本身的管理柔性价值。本文在实物期权理论的基础上,对政府向私营机构做出的最低交通量担保价值进行估算,并采用讨价还价博弈理论,基于政府和私营机构的双方风险偏好,对政府最低交通量担保价值进行分配。最后基于政府最低交通量担保,将风险分担策略应用于某高速公路PPP项目的案例分析中,说明运用实物期权计算的项目价值与项目的实际价值更为接近,为政府和私营机构提供了定量分析的参考方法。The value of management flexibility is often ignored when assessing highway PPP projects value using the tradi- tional assessment methods （NPV）. In this paper, on the basis of real options, option values of government minimum traffic volume guarantee were estimated, and then the minimum traffic volume guarantee value distribution was determined using the bargaining game theory based on the risk preferences of both public and private. Finally ,based on the government mini- mum traffic volume guarantee, the risk - sharing strategy was applied to a highway PPP project to illustrate the priority of the real option in PPP projects value. A kind of quantitative analysis methods is provided for both public and private.

关 键 词：PPP项目 实物期权 政府担保 博弈模型 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F542.3