山前小流域水文—水力学耦合洪水预报研究  

Study on hydrologic-hydraulic coupling model of flood forecasting for mountain-front watershed

作　　者：孙映宏[1] 姬战生[1] 向小华[2] 吴晓玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省杭州市水文水资源监测总站,浙江杭州310016 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2016年第11期9-13,共5页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专项经费资助项目(2016YFA0601000);浙江省水利科技计划重点项目(RB1308);国家自然科学基金(41201030)

摘　　要：为了提高受人类活动影响显著的小流域洪水预报精度,以浙江省杭州市东苕溪流域为研究对象,分别以半分布式新安江模型、平原区水文模型、分洪区水动力模型以及一维河网模型模拟山区、平原区、分洪区以及河道的洪水过程,在卡尔曼滤波实时校正技术的支持下,建立流域水文—水力学耦合预报模型。通过对1996年以来瓶窑站典型洪水进行率定和验证,表明该模型符合东苕溪预报的精度要求。在2012年"海葵"台风的实时预报应用中,该模型发挥了辅助决策的作用,可作为后期防汛决策的参考。In order to enhance the accuracy of flood forecasting for those watersheds under significant impacts from human activi- ties, Dongshaoxi Watershed in Hangzhou of Zhejiang Province is taken as the study case, and then a watershed hydrologic-hy- draulic coupling model is established by simulating the flood hydrographs of mountainous area, plain area, flood diversion area and river channel with the semi-distributed Xinanjiang Model, hydrological model for plain area, hydrodynamic model for flood diversion area and one-dimensional river-network model respectively under the support of the technique of real-time updating by Kalman filter. Through the calibration and verification made on the typical floods recorded in Pingyao Station since 1996, it is in- dicated that the model meets the accuracy requirement of the forecasting for Dongshaoxi Watershed. During the application of the real-time forecasting for Typhoon Haikui, the model plays a role of assistant decision-making, which can be taken as a reference for the decision-making of flood control in the days to come.

关 键 词：水文-水力学耦合模型 洪水预报 实时校正 卡尔曼滤波 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]