2016年人民币外汇远掉期交易评述与市场展望  

2016 FX forward/swap market review and outBook

作　　者：李晓光 

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2016年第12期24-27,共4页China Money

摘　　要：2016年风险事件频发，英国脱欧、美国大选部给金融市场带来巨大震荡。人民币外汇远掉期市场也呈现出了与以往不同的特点＋代客远期结售汇交易量与银行间市场交易量此消彼长；掉期曲线形态开始发生变化，短期价格坚挺，长端有所走低，曲线整体趋于平缓；即期汇率与掉期点走势亦不再同向；对比两岸市场，境内外即期市场联动性良好，掉期市场走势相对独立。该文结合市场实际运行情况，就人民币外汇远掉期市场的发展做一回顾和展望．2016 is a risk event stricken year during which the Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election had enormous mpacts on the financial markets. The RMB FX forward/swap market also presented features different from those of the past. The forward FX transaction of the banks on behalf of their customers has declined while the trading n the interbank forward market has grown fast. The swap curve became flattened with the yields at the shortterm end going strong and that at the long end going down slightly. The trend of the spot exchange rate and that of the swap point was no longer headed in the same direction. The onshore and offshore spot markets presented positive correlation while the swap market registered a relatively independent trend. This essay reviews the development of the RMB FX forward/swap market based on the actual performance and offers a prospective check into the future

关 键 词：市场展望 掉期交易 人民币 外汇 市场交易量 远期结售汇 风险事件 金融市场 

分 类 号：F724.725[经济管理—产业经济]