人口老龄化对中国进口贸易的影响分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究  

The Effect of Aging Population on Import in China:An Empirical Study Based on Static and Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

作　　者：崔凡[1] 崔凌云[1] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2016年第12期37-48,共12页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790007);山东省统计局科研项目(KT16236);山东省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(J16YE10)

摘　　要：文章利用2005~2013年我国省级数据,采用动态空间滞后面板模型,研究了人口老龄化对中国省级进口贸易的影响。结果显示,人口老龄化可显著增加进口需求,老年抚养比每增加1%,实际进口增加38.4亿元; 老年人口占比每增加1%,实际进口增加61.4亿元; 老少比每增加1%,实际进口增加9.29亿元。空间上,相邻省份间实际进口表现出正相关,这种正相关无论在地理距离,还是在经济距离衡量下都是显著的。若忽略空间相关性,实际进口的时间一阶滞后项的正效应会被低估50%。本文研究表明,在制定贸易促进政策时,需要重视人口老龄化对进口数量的影响,特别是空间上的影响,可避免不必要的贸易波动。The quantitative effect of aging population on provincial import in China is really a crucial issue we face today. By using the selected provincial panel data from 2005 to 2013 and spatial lag panel model, this paper analyzes this issue and finds that aging population can increase the demand of import significantly. When old-age dependency ratio increases 1%, the real import increases 3.84 billion RMB. When elderly -total population ratio increases 1%, the real import increases 6.14 billion RMB. When aged-child ratio increases 1%, the real import increases 0. 929 billion RMB. The real import in nearby provinces shows a positive relation in spatial dimension. One is that they face the same macroeconomic condition; the other is that aging population causes real wage change and labor force migration among provinces. Thus aging population and real import increase synchronously in nearby provinces, no matter it is measured in geographic distant weight or economic distance weight. Ignoring such a spatial correlation will cause the coefficient of one period lag of real import to be underestimated by 50%. This paper points out that when making trade-promotion policy, we should consider the effect of aging population.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 老年抚养比 老年人口占比 老少比 空间滞后面板模型 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F752