大棚蔬菜种植经营风险综合判断方法研究  

Research on comprehensive judgment method of business risk in greenhouse vegetable planting

作　　者：魏德云[1] 陆军[1] 谢银娟 金天澍 

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学暨阳学院,浙江诸暨311800

出　　处：《中国农机化学报》2016年第12期215-220,共6页Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(15YJCZH183);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ14C130004);浙江农林大学暨阳学院科研发展基金项目(JYYY1401);浙江农林大学暨阳学院大学生科技创新活动计划项目(JYKC1522;JYKC1606)

摘　　要：为控制大棚蔬菜种植经营风险,以浙江省临安市大棚蔬菜种植为例,在调研数据基础上采用经营杠杆原理与利润敏感性分析相结合的方法,对9类种植模式的经营杠杆系数、保本销售量、保本销售额、贡献毛益率、安全边际率、单因素利润敏感系数、多因素利润敏感系数等指标进行计算和分析。结果显示:这9类种植模式的安全边际率都远大于40%;多种蔬菜种植的经营风险低于单一蔬菜种植;在多种蔬菜种植模式中适当提高贡献毛益率高的蔬菜的销售比重,可最大化降低经营风险。该研究克服了单因素利润敏感性分析方法的片面性和单一性缺陷,在温室经营风险的综合判断方法上进行有益探索。In order to control business risk of greenhouse vegetable planting, comprehensive judgment method of it was explored beneficially. Hence, several factors in 9 planting patterns were calculated and analyzed, including operating leverage coefficient, break-even sales, break-even dollar sales, rate of contribution margin, rate of safety margin, profit sensitivity coefficient of single factor, profit sensitivity coefficient of multi-factors and so on. The data was collected by survey for greenhouse vegetable planting farmers in Linan City, Zhejiang Province, based on that operating leverage principle and profit sensitivity analysis were used. The results show that safety margin of 9 planting patterns are far larger than 40 %, business risk of multiple vegetables planting is lower than the single one. In addition, increasing the sales proportion of vegetables with high contribution margin could maximize reduce the business risk in multiple vegetables planting. Thus, this study could overcome the unilateralism and singleness of single-factor profit sensitivity a- nalysis method for greenhouse management.

关 键 词：大棚蔬菜种植 经营杠杆原理 利润敏感性分析 经营风险控制 

分 类 号：S626[农业科学—园艺学] F304[经济管理—产业经济]