全球变暖“停滞”现象辨识与机理研究  

Research on the Global Warming Hiatus

作　　者：林霄沛[1] 许丽晓[1] 李建平[2] 罗德海[3] 刘海龙[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室,青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室,山东青岛266100 [2]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029 [4]上海交通大学海洋研究院,上海200240

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2016年第10期995-1000,共6页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“全球变暖‘停滞’现象辨识与机理研究”(编号:2016YFA0601800)资助~~

摘　　要：观测表明全球温室气体浓度持续快速增加,但21世纪以来全球表面平均温度升高有减缓趋势,呈现变暖"停滞"现象,这对已有的全球变暖认识带来挑战。围绕"变暖‘停滞’机理及其可预测性"这一国际前沿科学问题,国家重点研发计划"全球变暖‘停滞’现象辨识与机理研究"主要研究内容有:1辨识变暖"停滞"的时空特征,阐明外部强迫和内部自然变率的相对贡献;2阐明全球变暖停滞背景下,大气在气候系统能量热量再分配过程中的作用及机理;3阐明全球变暖"停滞"背景下,海洋动力热力过程对能量热量再分配的调制机理;4探讨全球变暖"停滞"现象的可预测性,对其未来变化及重要区域气候影响进行预测预估。以期通过变暖"停滞"研究回答人们所关心的目前变暖停滞现象未来发展及其对我国及周边的"一带一路"核心区和南北极重要区域的影响,为我国未来气候政策的制定提供参考依据,为国家参与全球气候治理及国际气候谈判提供科学支撑。A global warming “hiatus” has been observed since the beginning of the 21st century despite the increase in heat-trapping greenhouse gases, challenging the current global warming studies. Focusing on the phenomena and mechanisms of the global warming “hiatus”, the National Key Research Program of China launched a project in July, 2016. The main research themes of this project cover： ①Revealing the spatial and temporal variability of the global warming hiatus, and quantifying the contributions of external forcing and internal （natural） variability, respectively; ②Revealing the role of the atmosphere in the global heat and energy redistribution under global warming hiatus; ③Revealing the role of the ocean in the global heat and energy redistribution under global warming hiatus; ④Investigating the predictability of the global warming hiatus. The key scientific issues to be resolved include： ①Identifying characteristics of the global warming hiatus and discerning the roles of decadal, multi-decadal oscillations; ②Revealing the role of ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the global redistribution of heat and energy; ③Understanding the predictability of the global warming hiatus. The research aims to predict the future development of the global warming hiatus, and to point out the possible impacts on China and other important areas, including “The Belt and Road” core area and the Polar Regions.

关 键 词：全球变暖“停滞” 年代际-多年代际变化 海洋大气能量热量再分配 可预测性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]