贝叶斯概率模型计算钢筋混凝土柱受剪承载力  

Calculation of shear strength of RC column by Bayesian probability model

作　　者：党伟[1] 申世飞[2] 刘喜[3] DANG Wei SHEN Shifei LIU Xi(Xi＇an Aeronautical University, Xi＇an 710077, China Xi＇an Thermal Power Research Institute Co. Ltd Xi＇an 710054, China School of Civil Engineering, Chang＇ an University, Xi＇an 710061, China)

机构地区：[1]西安航空学院,陕西西安710077 [2]西安热工研究院有限公司,陕西西安710054 [3]长安大学建筑工程学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《世界地震工程》2016年第4期223-230,共8页World Earthquake Engineering

摘　　要：贝叶斯概率统计方法能够在实际样本空间容量较小的条件下，通过未知参数先验信息进一步对未知参数进行估计，与经典统计频率学存在本质的不同。收集了83组剪跨比在1—2的钢筋混凝土柱在低周反复荷载作用下的受剪承载力试验数据，选定美国ACI318—08规范中钢筋混凝土柱受剪承载力计算公式作为贝叶斯先验模型，综合这两类信息，采用贝叶斯概率统计理论，建立了基于贝叶斯理论的钢筋混凝土柱受剪承载力后验概率模型。利用贝叶斯后验模型参数剔除理论，剔除影响柱抗剪强度的次要因素，对概率模型进行动态更新，得到了柱抗剪强度的简化概率模型。最后，分析验证了贝叶斯概率简化柱受剪承载力计算模型的正确性，同时，对采用不同先验模型条件下所得的后验模型计算值进行了对比分析，表明贝叶斯方法继承了先验信息的完备性和大量试验数据的准确性，能够更准确地预测钢筋混凝土柱的受剪承载力。Under the condition of small sample space, Bayesian probability statistical method can estimate the un- known parameters through a prior information about the parameters, which is different from the classical statistical frequency in nature. This paper collects 83 groups of test data that the shear beating capacity of reinforced concrete column with shear span ratio between 1 -2 under low reversed cyclic loading, and selects the ACI318 -08 specification formula on shear bearing capacity of reinforced concrete column as Bayesian prior model, and then integrates the two types of information using Bayesian probability statistical theory to establish the posterior probability model of reinforced concrete column shear bearing capacity. Then the paper simplifies the column shear strength probability model through a dynamic update that eliminates the secondary factors affecting column shear strength by using the Bayesian posterior model parameters rejecting theory. Finally, analyses verify the correctness of the method on Bayesian probability simplified column shear bearing capacity calculation model, and at the same time, compare the calculation values of posterior models that are obtained under the conditions of different prior models. Results show that the approach inherits the completeness of the prior model and the accuracy of a great number of experimental data information, so it can more accurately predict the shear strength of concrete column.

关 键 词：受剪承载力 抗震性能 计算模型 贝叶斯理论 钢筋混凝土柱 

分 类 号：TU375.4[建筑科学—结构工程]