2016年经济景气形势监测、分析与预测  

The Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Situations in 2016

作　　者：陈磊[1,2] 孟勇刚[2] 孙晨童 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济学院,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2016年第5期I0002-I0002,521-529,共10页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(编号:15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究;首席专家:陈磊;辽宁特聘教授项目:经济波动和通货膨胀的监测预警研究;负责人:陈磊

摘　　要：我国月度经济景气从2015年第4季度开始出现止跌企稳态势,2016年第4季度至2017年可能在"偏冷"区内继续保持大体平稳的运行态势。短期内经济景气再次降温进入"过冷"区间的可能性较小。预测2016年GDP增长率将达到6.7%左右,CPI上涨率为2%左右,经济景气和物价波动继续呈现"新常态"下的"微波化"特征。The economic climate has stopped downward trend since 2015Q4 and is expected to keep roughly stable in the ＂partial cold＂ range from 2016Q4 to 2017. It is unlikely oriented downwards and step into the ＂cold＂ state in a short time. We predict that the GDP growth rate would reach about 6.7% in 2016, and meanwhile the annual inflation rate would be about 2%. Economic and inflation cycle would be also featured with wavelet in the ＂new normal＂ stage.

关 键 词：经济周期 景气分析 监测预警 经济预测 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]