2016年我国消费需求分析及未来展望  

Analysis of China 's Consumption Demand in 2016 and Its Prospect

作　　者：田青[1] 张秀敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,大连116025

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2016年第5期537-542,共6页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(编号:15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究;首席专家:陈磊;辽宁省高等学校优秀人才支持项目(编号:WR2013010):中国居民消费选择行为的动态演变及原因:从微观数据到宏观表象;负责人:田青

摘　　要：2016年1—8月,我国社会消费品零售总额增速基本保持稳定,但网络零售额依旧持续了较高增长;虽然农村社会消费品零售总额增速依然高于城镇,但是差距正变得越来越小;汽车销售和石油及制品类消费增速都显著回升;信息消费增速回落而服务消费市场持续走高;房地产市场表现良好;居民消费意愿及对当前和未来消费形势并不明朗。预计未来一段时间,消费需求继续上行动力不足,消费升级转型持续推进,汽车消费出现大幅增长的可能性不大,不同城市房屋价格走势将持续分化。鉴于此,政府可以通过支持服务业的发展、推进供给侧改革、提高低收入群体收入水平、规范文化娱乐产业发展使居民消费更加合理、健康、充满活力。In the first eight months of 2016, the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China remained stable, but the retail sales of the network continued to grow at a high level. Although the total retail sales of rural social consumer goods were still higher than that of urban areas, the gap was becoming more and more small. The growth rate of information consumption has continued to rise; the real estate market has performed well; the consumer＇s willingness to consume and uncertainty about the current and future consumption situation are not clear. Expected in the future for some time, consumer demand continues upward power shortage, consumer upgrades continue to promote the transformation, there is a substantial increase in car consumption unlikely that the trend of housing prices in different cities will continue to divide. In view of this, the government can support the development of the service industry, promote supply side reform, improve the income level of low-income groups, regulate the development of cultural and entertainment industries to make residents consumption more reasonable, healthy and full of vitality.

关 键 词：消费需求 影响因素 政策建议 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]