2016年人民币汇率分析及2017年展望  

An Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate in 2016 and Prospects for 2017

作　　者：范洋 

机构地区：[1]国家信息中心经济预测部,北京100045

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2016年第5期579-583,共5页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(编号:15ZDA011):新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究;首席专家:陈磊

摘　　要：2016年,中国经济增速趋缓,结构调整持续,"三去一降一补"尚待完成。国际经济形势错综复杂,全球经济政策走向分化,美联储加息决策悬而未决,国际金融市场动荡加剧。在国内外局势复杂多变的情况下,人民币汇率波动加剧,持续面临贬值压力。预计2017年中国经济增速将继续减缓,国际收支经常账户顺差规模缩小,跨境资本流出趋势难以逆转,人民币汇率仍然面临较大贬值压力。但是,中国经济基本面仍然稳定向好,经常账户顺差规模仍然较大,外债规模小,人民币不存在大幅贬值的基础。因此,本文建议我国应进一步完善汇率形成机制,增强政策透明度,合理引导预期,谨慎推进资本账户开放。In the year 2016, China＇s economic growth slowed down, structural adjustment continued, the five major tasks proposed on the 2015＇s Central Economic Working Conference are still on the way to complete. The international economic situation is intricate, the global economic policies diverge, the Federal Reserve＇s interest rate is pending, and the international financial market turbulence intensifies. Facing complex situations in both domestic and abroad, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates under the pressure of devaluation. As China＇s economic growth is still expected to slow down in 2017, Balance of Payments Current Account surplus is expected to narrow, cross-border capital tend to flow out, the RMB exchange rate is still facing greater devaluation pressure. However, China＇s economy growth is still stable, Current Account surplus is large, external debt is small. Therefore, there is no basis for long-term RMB depreciation. Suggestions in this article include： further perfect the exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the transparency of policies, guide the expectation reasonably and promote the opening of capital account carefully.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 外汇市场 汇率形成机制 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]