经济竞争下的地方财政风险:透过债务规模看财政效率  

Local Fiscal Risk under the Economic Competition:to Judge Fiscal Efficiency through Debt Scale

作　　者：缪小林[1] 史倩茹[2] Miao Xiaolin Shi Qianru

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学公共政策研究中心 [2]云南财经大学财政与经济学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2016年第10期20-35,57,共17页Public Finance Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"公共财政安全监测预警机制研究"(12JZD031);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金"地方政府债务风险动因挖掘与制度修正研究:基于权责时空分离下的责任转移预期模型"(71303207);国家自然科学基金"税收缺口测算体系与税收政策分析拓展模型研究"(71163044);云南省科技计划应用基础研究面上项目"权责时空分离下地方政府债务风险生成与控制研究--云南案例"(2012FB168)的资助

摘　　要：地方财政风险的内核是财政资金配置效率,地方政府债务持续膨胀只是财政低效率累积的结果,属于财政风险表象,本文透过债务从财政效率视角重新考察我国地方财政风险。理论分析表明,我国特殊分权体制及其政府间竞争机制,将导致地方政府追求"高"而"快"的经济增长,理性的地方政府行为将选择财政支出规模替代财政资金效率,这种低效率引发的债务膨胀和地方财政风险将成为必然。本文进一步通过实证分析发现:第一,我国地方财政资金配置效率总体上从2002年开始出现技术无效且逐年递减,2014年有14个地区出现技术无效,均表现为不断扩张的财政支出没有有效发挥对社会资本引导而呈现的规模报酬递减状态;第二,统计上验证了财政资金配置效率与地方政府债务负担的负相关关系,其中10个地区属于"低效率、高负担",14个地区属于"高效率、低负担";第三,计量检验得出,地区间经济竞争显著加剧了财政资金配置效率与地方政府债务负担的反向关联,并对政府债务结构、生产能力条件、居民消费强度、社会投资强度、市场交易效率、金融信贷环境、国家战略布局和地区治理能力等相关因素存在显著依赖。The inherent base of local fiscal risk is fiscal fund allocation efficiency. Local government debt is only the result of low fiscal efficiency accumulation. It belongs to the surface of fiscal risk. This article re-examines Chinese local fiscal risk from the perspective of fiscal efficiency through debt. Theoretical analysis shows, special decentralized system and competition mechanism between governments in China will lead local government to pursue ＂high＂ and ＂fast＂ economic growth, rational government behavior will select fiscal expenditure scale to replace fiscal fund efficiency, debt expansion and local fiscal risk caused by low efficiency will become inevitable. Further empirical analysis shows that： Firstly, in general, Chinese local fiscal fund allocation efficiency showed technical inefficiency since 2012, and decreased year by year, 14 areas were technical inefficient in 2014, all of them showed continuous expansion of fiscal expenditure and decreasing returns to scale, but no effectively guidance to social capital; Secondly, it statistically verified the negative correlation between fiscal fund allocation efficiency and local government debt burden, with 10 regions belonging to ＂low efficiency, high burden＂ regions and 14 regions belonging to ＂high efficiency, low burden＂ regions. Thirdly, the quantitative tests find that the regional economic competition significantly contributes to negative correlation between fiscal fund allocation efficiency and local government debt burden, and notably depends on correlative factor such as government debt structure, conditions of production capacity, resident consumption intensity, social investment intensity, market transaction efficiency, financial credit environment, national strategic layout and regional governance capability.

关 键 词：经济竞争 地方财政风险 财政资金配置效率 地方政府债务 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]