不确定性、风险管理与信任决策——基于中美战略互动的考察  

Uncertainty,Risk Management and Trust Decision-Making:A Study Based on Sino-U.S. Strategic Relations

作　　者：黄海涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2016年第12期128-151,共24页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社科基金规划项目(项目批准号:13BGJ049)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：信任是国际关系研究中的难题。在国际政治场景下的国际信任建设可以被理解为国家如何做出信任决策的问题。作为信任决策的核心,对不确定性及其风险的管理是理解相关行为的关键。在对当前学界的信任研究进行梳理和归纳之后,作者以分析折中主义为认识论基础,提出了一个综合主流的理性选择路径与社会心理路径的信任决策分析视角。在无政府状态的制约下,国家为了对信任风险进行有效管理,必须廓清由信任需要、信任保障和信任调整所构成的"信任门槛"。从本质上讲,信任门槛主要是一个基于理性评估的问题,但在此过程中,国家的评估对象除了处于基础地位的现实战略利益外,也包括由社会互动、意识形态和文化传统等非理性因素所框定的可信度。中美战略互动的进程较为典型地体现了在不同国际结构和实力对比关系构成的具体情境中,上述诸多因素所构成的极为复杂的风险组合及其对国家信任决策的挑战。基于历史经验,对于当前中美战略互疑加剧的状况,作者提出了以强化中美信任需求为突破口的信任构建路径。Trust is a conundrum in IR research. International trust building can be understood as an issue of trust decision making under the condition of international politics. To manage the uncertainty and its risk,which is the core element in trust decision making,is crucial for understanding relevant behaviors. After reviewing recent studies on trust,this paper proposes a synthetic perspective on trust decision making,in which the rational choice approach and social psychological approach are synthesized by the guidance of Analytical Eclecticism. Conditioned by international anarchy,states,in order to effectively manage risk,have to clear up the 'trust threshold',which consists of trust demands,trust guarantee and trust adjustment. Trust threshold is essentially an issue of rational assessment. However, besides practical strategic interest,states make the assessment about the trustworthiness defining irrational factors,such as social interaction,ideology and culture. The history of Sino-U. S. strategic interaction typically elaborates the complicated risks posed by the above-mentioned elements and challenges towards trust decision making.

关 键 词：不确定性 风险管理 信任决策 战略互信 信任门槛 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]