陇东黄土高原地区可持续发展动态仿真研究——以甘肃省庆阳市为例  

Study on Dynamic Simulation of Sustainable Development in Loess Plateau Region of East Gansu Province——A Case Study of Qingyang City,Gansu Province

作　　者：鹿晨昱[1] 王婷[1] 逯承鹏[2] 李勇进[3] 李恒吉[4] LU Chen - yu WANG Ting LU Cheng - peng LI Yong - jin LI Heng - ji(College of Geography and Environment Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China Key Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS, Shenyang 110016, China College of Philosophy and Sociology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China Lanzhou Literature and Information Center, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所污染生态与环境工程重点实验室,辽宁沈阳110016 [3]兰州大学哲学社会学院,甘肃兰州730000 [4]中国科学院兰州文献情报中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2017年第1期20-26,共7页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41261112;41561110;41471116);甘肃省科技支撑计划项目(编号:1304FKCA067)资助

摘　　要：可持续发展是当前的热点研究领域,涉及的区域系统是一个以人类活动为核心的复杂巨系统,而系统动力学正是研究和处理这种动态复杂系统的有效工具。运用系统动力学理论和方法,基于Vensim软件构建了甘肃省庆阳市可持续发展动态仿真模型,对其可持续发展的演化趋势进行了模拟分析。结果表明:庆阳市当前的经济、资源和环境之间的发展模式是不可持续的,降低经济系统对自然资源的依赖程度、转变经济发展模式,是实现庆阳市可持续发展的必然选择。在此基础上,增加技术投资、教育投资和环保投资,通过三者间的相互影响和相互促进,才能彻底扭转三废排放量增加的趋势,使经济实现快速、持续、稳定的增长,才能全面实现庆阳市的可持续发展。Sustainable development was a hot research area. The corresponding regional system was a large complex system which took human ac- tivity as the core. System dynamics was an effective simulation tool to study and process the dynamic and complex system. In this paper, the theory and method of system dynamics was employed. Based on the vensim software, the dynamic simulation model of sustainable development was built in Qingy- ang City. Then the evolvement trend of sustainable development was simulated and analyzed. The results showed that the current development mode of economy, resources and environment in Qingyang City was not sustainable. In order to achieve the sustainable development, it was necessary to reduce the dependence of economic system on natural resources and change the economic development mode. It was also necessary to increase the technology investment, education investment and environmental protection investment at the same time. Then the increasing trend of pollution emission could be changed completely. So the economic growth could be rapid, sustainable and steady. Finally, the sustainable development could be achieved in Qingyang City.

关 键 词：系统动力学 可持续发展 资源 环境 庆阳市 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学] F224.12