MGM(1,n)模型在黔中枢纽大坝沉降分析的应用  

Application of MGM(1,n) Model in Settlement Analysis of Qianzhong Hydraulic Dam

作　　者：庞先明[1] 庞井龙 晏卫国[1] 林志强[2] PANG Xianming PANG Jinglong YAN Weiguo LIN Zhiqiang(Guizhou Provincial Dam Safety Observation Center, Guiyang 550002, China Fujian Provincial Academy of Building Research, Fuzhou 350024, China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省大坝安全监测中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]福建省建筑科学研究院,福建福州350024

出　　处：《水利信息化》2016年第4期15-19,共5页Water Resources Informatization

基　　金：贵州省重大科技专项计划项目(20126013-2)

摘　　要：岩溶地区影响高面板坝施工期和初运行期沉降变形的不利因素较多,沉降变形是一个复杂的非线性系统过程。灰色理论能从有限的、离散的数据中寻求潜在的必然性,因而较适合于岩溶地区高面板坝的沉降变形分析。针对单点GM(1,1)模型不能考虑沉降监测点间的关联性,反映不出高面板坝整体变形规律的问题,在灰关联分析的基础上,选取黔中水利枢纽工程高面板坝施工期坝体最大沉降测点及与其关联性较大测点的观测数据建立空间多变量灰色预测模型MGM(1,3)模型。计算结果表明,与单点GM(1,1)模型相比,MGM(1,3)模型能反映出高面板坝沉降的整体变形规律,且模型的模拟和预测精度高。Karst areas have much more unfavorable factors on high concrete rockfill dam settlement during the constructing and initial operating period. Settlement is a complex nonlinear systematic process. By extracting potential inevitability from the finite and discrete settlement data, grey system theory suitable for dam settlement deformation analysis of the high concrete face rockfill dam in karst areas. The single point model named GM（1,1） can＇t consider the correlation of settlement between the discrete monitoring points and can＇t respect the integrated deformation regularity of the high concrete rockfill dam settlement. Based on grey correlation analysis, the MGM（1,3） model is established in this paper using the settlement data of the maximum and its relating monitoring points of the Qianzhong hydraulic project dam during the constructing period. A case study shows the MGM（1,3） model can respect the integrated deformation regularity of the high concrete rockfill dam settlement and has a higher precision in simulating and forecasting than GM（1,1） model.

关 键 词：黔中水利枢纽工程 沉降分析 面板堆石坝 MGM(1 n)模型 沉降变形 

分 类 号：TV64[水利工程—水利水电工程]