全球能源安全逆向演变与中国战略  

The Reverse Evolution of Global Energy Security and China's Strategy

作　　者：张建新[1] Zhang Jianxin

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

出　　处：《学术前沿》2016年第22期26-37,共12页Frontiers

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国能源安全与‘一带一路’能源合作研究";浙江师范大学非洲研究院非洲研究专项课题"中国在非能源企业面临的风险挑战与对策研究"的阶段性研究成果;项目批准号分别为:15BGJ022;15FZZX01YB)

摘　　要：2014年爆发的逆向石油危机改变了过去30年以来的全球能源安全格局。一方面全球能源地缘政治更加动荡不安,另一方面主要能源消费大国在能源安全上出现分野,发达经济体的能源安全形势有所好转,尤以美国安全感为最高。新兴经济体大都面临能源安全的系统性风险,尤以中国安全风险的多元性最为突出,包括对外能源依存度的不可逆性、亚洲再平衡战略的威胁、巴黎协议框架下减缓义务对能源结构的冲击以及内生性能源安全风险的挑战等。面对系统性的安全风险,我国应统筹内外两个市场和两种资源,对内通过深化能源体制革命,对外通过"一带一路"能源合作,增强应对地缘政治冲突的能力,有效应对逆向石油危机对能源安全带来的新挑战。The outbreak of the reverse oil crisis in 2014 has changed the pattern of global energy security over the past 30 years. On the one hand, the global energy geopolitics becomes more volatile; on the other hand, the main energy consumption nations are divided over energy securi~, the energy security situation of the developed economies has improved, with the US having the highest sense of security Most emerging economies are facing the systemic risk of energy security, especially China due to its diverse security risks, including the irreversible dependence on overseas energy, the threat of tile US Asian rebalancing strategy, the impact of the mitigation obligations under the framework of the Paris Climate Agreement on energy structure, and the challenge of endogenous energy security risks. In the face of systemic security risks, China should take into account the markets and resources at home and abroad, deepen reform of the energy system domestically, enhance energy cooperation externally through the ＂Belt and Road＂ Initiative, and become better able to cope with the new challenges of geopolitical conflicts, in order to effectively deal with the issues over energy security due to the reverse oil crisis.

关 键 词：逆向石油危机 地缘政治 气候变化 能源安全战略 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]