城市气温变异与季节响应研究  

Temperature Variation and Its Seasonal Response in Urban Beijing

作　　者：向柳[1] 张玉虎[1] 蔡万园[2] 谢培[1] 陈秋华[3] 

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]北京大学地球与空间科学学院遥感与地理信息系统研究所,北京100871 [3]首都师范大学数学科学学院,北京100048

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2016年第4期5-11,共7页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2014108;2014092);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAC19B03)资助

摘　　要：气温变化是气候变化显著特征之一,分析城市气温季节性变异与响应具有重要意义。基于1951~2014年逐日平均、最高和最低气温观测资料,利用多种极端气温指数,通过线性倾向估计、Mann-Kenndall检验等方法,研究北京城区气温及其极端气温指数变化趋势,分析入春、入夏、入秋、入冬时间及四季长度变化,并探讨温度变化的可能成因和影响。结果表明:(1)北京城区气温显著升高,升温幅度呈现最低气温>平均气温>最高气温,分别升高0.19、0.40、0.49℃·(10a)^(-1),霜冻日数、不热日数、负温日数、不热日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数、冷持续指数、气温日较差呈显著下降趋势,而热日指数、酷热指数、生长期长度、暖夜日数、暖昼日数呈现升高趋势,基于最低气温的指数增减幅度较大;(2)四季增温明显,气温变化幅度呈冬季>春季>秋季>夏季,平均气温分别增长0.40、0.32、0.36、0.47℃·(10a)^(-1),冬季趋暖,夏季趋热,气温突变时间冬季最早,春季次之,夏季最晚;(3)入春、入夏时间提前,入秋、入冬时间推迟,夏季时间延长,冬、春和秋季长度明显缩短,相比前30年,1981~2000年入春、入夏时间分别提前7、9天,入秋、入冬时间分别推迟8、4天,夏季长度增加17天,冬、春、秋季各减少11、3、3天;(4)北京城区升温是城市化和气候变化耦合作用的结果,城市温室效应增大升温幅度,持续升温可能会对城市生态系统、大气环境、能源供需、用水结构以及居民健康等产生影响。The scientific evaluation of urban air temperature variation and its seasonal response is crucial to urban compound ecosystem management. With the linear trend estimation and the Mann-Kenndall test method, the change of ata of all seasons and seasonal length analyzed on the basis of the variation trend of temperature and 16 extreme temperature indices, and the possible attribution and influence of temperature change based on the daily observation data of mean, maximum, and minimum temperature in urban Beijing during 1951-2014were discussed The results shows that： （1） During the past 64 years, temperature of urban Beijing has been obviously increasing in the minimum, mean and maximum temperature, which rise by 0.49, 0.40 and 0.19℃/10a respectively. FD0, FD0, ID0, ID25, TN10p, TX10p,CSDI, and DTR showed a direction of reducing, while SU25, steadily; the indices based on minimum temperature increase TR20, GSL, TN90p, and TX90p risen or decrease by a large margin. （2） Seasonal maximum, mean and minimum temperature showed a marked increasing, and mean temperature of winter, spring, autumn, summer and increased by 0.47, 0.40, 0.36, and 0.32℃/10a respectively. The abrupt change time of winter temperature was earlier than the spring followed by the autumn, and summer was the most late. （3） With the data entering spring and summer pushed forward, and the autumn and winter postponed, summer became more longer, and length of winter, spring and autumn shortened obviously. Compared to 1951-1980, spring, and summer respectively advance 7, and 9 days, autumn and winter were delayed 8, and 4 days; summer length increased 17 days, but winter, spring, and autumn delayed by 11, 3, and 3 days respectively during 1981-2010. （4） Warming of urban Beijing was the result of urbanization and climate change, urban greenhouse effect increased warming amplitude in the urban Beijing. Warming in urban area may affect the health of urban ecological system in urban Beijing.

关 键 词：气温 气温指数 变化趋势 季节响应 北京城区 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]