基于证据权法与确定系数法的滑坡危险区划对比分析——以虹口乡为例  

Based on the weights of evidence method and certainty factor method of landslide danger division comparative analysis——A case study in Hongkou,chine

作　　者：刘光辉[1,2] 刘汉湖[1,2] 姚昆[1,2] 夏洁[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地球科学学院,成都610059 [2]成都理工大学国土资源部地学空间信息技术重点实验室,成都610059

出　　处：《物探化探计算技术》2016年第6期848-853,共6页Computing Techniques For Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41102225)

摘　　要：都江堰虹口乡为国家级旅游景区,汶川地震后,该区滑坡频发,极大威胁该地区游客及居民人身财产安全,开展该地区滑坡危险区预测具有重要意义。这里以地质图、地形图、DEM高程数据、QuickBird影像为数据源,选取地层岩性、构造、高程、坡度、坡向、水系6个评价因子,基于GIS平台,用证据权法、确定系数法对研究区滑坡危险性分析方法进行对比分析,得出最优的滑坡危险区划研究方法。分析表明:确定系数法的准确率为0.7732,而证据权法的准确率为0.7216。经过野外的调查、研究,确定系数法预测的危险性区域与实际情况更加地吻合,有着较高的精度,因此确定系数法更加适合虹口乡的滑坡危险区划研究。Hongkou township in Dujiangyan is a national scenic spot.After Wenchuan earthquake,landslides frequently occur in this area,which greatly threatens personal and property safety of tourists and residents there.Thus,it becomes significantly important to develop forecast to the landslide dangerous area of this region.This article based on GIS platform,takes geologic map,topographic map,DEM elevation data,QuickBird image as data sources,selects 6evaluation factors of stratigraphic lithology,structure,elevation,slope,slope direction and water system,applies to weight of evidence method,determination coefficient method to make comparative analysis to the analytical methods of landslide dangers in research area and find out the best research method to landslide risk area.The analysis shows that,accuracy rate of determination coefficient method is 0.7732,while weight of evidence method has 0.7216 accuracy rate.After field research,the risk area predicated by method of determination coefficient can match practical situation more with high accuracy.Thus determination coefficient method is more fitness for the research of landslide risk area in Hongkou Township.

关 键 词：证据权法 确定系数法 GIS 滑坡 

分 类 号：TU431[建筑科学—岩土工程]