“伊斯兰国”对中亚地区的安全威胁:迷思还是现实?  

Threats Posed by the Islamic State in Central Asia:Myth or Reality?

作　　者：宛程[1] 杨恕[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2017年第1期118-148,共31页Journal of International Security Studies

基　　金：周明主持的国家社会科学基金青年项目"中亚萨拉菲与恐怖极端势力的关系及对新疆安全的影响研究"(项目批准号:14CGJ016);宛程主持的中央高校基本科研业务费项目"圣战萨拉菲与恐怖极端势力的关系及对新疆安全与稳定的影响"(项目批准号:14LZUJBWYJ019)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：对于"伊斯兰国"是否会对中亚地区安全构成威胁以及这种威胁的程度如何,国内外学术界的看法存在诸多分歧。"伊斯兰国"通过招募中亚地区的人员和对各国的边界进行袭扰,并通过意识形态宣传扩大其价值观在中亚地区的影响力等方式,的确对该地区安全形势带来了一定的冲击。不过,"伊斯兰国"对中亚安全形势的影响是有限的。这主要是因为,"伊斯兰国"在国际反恐联盟的打击下,地面作战部队被限制在叙利亚一伊拉克境内,无法在中亚地区开展直接的攻击。此外,由于中亚伊斯兰特殊的发展经历,使"伊斯兰国"的意识形态在当地缺乏群众基础。这些因素,决定了"伊斯兰国"对中亚安全的影响主要体现在促进该地区部分极端势力思想的进一步激进化或激励部分恐怖分子发起"独狼式"恐怖活动等。随着"伊斯兰国"的战场失利,部分"圣战"分子回流中亚,需要对"伊斯兰国"与中亚安全之间的关联性予以更多关注,并尽早研究对策。Domestic and foreign academia have different opinions about whether the Islamic State poses a threat to Central Asia,and if it does,how serious the threat may be.Through investigations,we find that the Islamic State indeed poses a threat to this region in the form of recruiting soldiers from relevant countries,harassing the borders and launching an aggressive campaign to spread its ideology.However,the pressure exerted by ISIS on the Central Asia security situation is quite limited.ISIS combat troops are incapable of staging direct attacks on the Central Asia countries because their ground troops have been confined to Syria and Iraq that are under attacks now from international anti-terrorism alliance.In addition,due to the distinctive history of the Islamism in Central Asia,ISIS ideology lacks grass-root support in this region.As a result,all these factors can only contribute to further radicalization of the extremist groups and the 'lone wolf' terrorist attacks.With ISIS being defeated on the battleground,some jihadists may return to this region.Therefore,we need to pay more attention to the linkage between ISIS and the Central Asian security situation in order to work out the countermeasures in a timely manner.

关 键 词：＂伊斯兰国＂ 中亚安全 三股势力 意识形态 独狼式攻击 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]