基于可拓评价方法的大面积航班延误预警  

Large-Scale Flight Delay Early-Warning Based on Extension Evaluation Method

作　　者：张兆宁[1] 苏军[1] 曹悦琪 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300

出　　处：《指挥信息系统与技术》2016年第6期55-59,共5页Command Information System and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171190)资助项目

摘　　要：在超密度和大流量运行环境下,空域容量与需求的冲突极易导致大面积航班延误。为解决该问题,从空域容量和需求角度给出预警指标,建立了大面积航班延误预警指标体系。将未确知有理数权值法引入可拓学理论,减少了指标权重确定的主观性,应用物元概念和可拓集合关联函数,建立基于物元和关联函数的大面积航班延误预警模型。实例分析表明该模型的有效性。In the running environment with super-high density and large flow, the conflict between the demand and the airspace capacity easily leads to large-scale flight delay. To solve the problem, early-warning indexes of the demand and the airspace capacity are given, and the early- warning index system on large-scale flight delay is established. To decrease the subjectivity in determining index weight, the theory of unascertained rational number is introduced into extension evaluation theory and the large-scale flight delay early-warning model is established based on the matter element and the dependent function, the conception of the matter element and the dependent function of the extension set. The case analysis shows that the model is effective.

关 键 词：大面积航班延误 指标体系 预警模型 可拓评价方法 未确知有理数 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]