江苏沿江稻区水稻纹枯病病情扩展时间动态模型  

Studies on the dynamic models of rice sheath blight expansion with time in riparian rice region,Jiangsu province

作　　者：易红娟 王节萍[2] 孙雪梅 杨凌峰 刘嘉德 张谷丰[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省南通市通州区植保站,江苏南通226300 [2]江苏省农业科学院植物保护研究所,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2016年第6期1256-1261,共6页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：科技基础性工作专项(2013FY113200);江苏省农业科技自主创新基金项目[CX(15)1002]

摘　　要：本研究2014-2015年对江苏沿江稻区纹枯病病斑最高点离地面高度及病株数随时间变化的规律进行了系统研究,并进行了相关模型的分析拟合。结果表明,纹枯病病情随时间增长而蔓延扩展,应用SPSS曲线拟合病情随时间（t）变化的动态模型,根据各模型的检验参数分析比较,二次函数、三次函数、幂函数、Logistic函数的拟合程度较好,其中Logistic函数更能反映病情随时间变化的动态。根据Logistic函数分析得出的病斑最高点离地面高度Logistic函数曲线,计算得Logistic函数曲线的2个特征值t1等于12.79 d,t2等于42.05 d,曲线拐点为27.42d;病株数Logistic曲线的特征值t1、t2分别等于12.89 d和18.16 d。由此可见纹枯病初见病株后的13-42 d,是病情发展最快的时期,因而纹枯病防治的起始时间应掌握在病情突增期之前,即见病后的13 d前。The rules of the disease spots height and disease plants of rice sheath blight with the time variation at the growing season of rice from 2014 to 2015 were studied in riparian rice region,Jiangsu province,and the simulated models were analyzed. The results showed that the rice sheath blight extended as the time passed,and then the method of curvilin-ear regression was used to simulate the dynamic models of the disease and time by SPSS. The quadratic function,cubic function, power function and the Logistic function were selected to simulate the model and the fitting degree were good by the comparison of test parameters. Logistic function was the best in the five functions. Finally,the Logistic function for the disease spots height was constructed,the characteristic values of Logistic function were calculated as 12. 79 d for t { and 42. 5 d for t2 , and the curves turning point was 27. 42 d. The characteristic values for disease plants of Logistic function were 12. 89 d for t1 and 18. 16 d for t2 . So the period that the disease expanded quickly occured the date between 13 to 42 d after the beginning of the disease appeared, and the best time to prevent this disease was the first 13 d.

关 键 词：水稻纹枯病 病情扩展 时间 动态模型 

分 类 号：S435.111.42[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]