基于最大熵模型的斑翅果蝇适生性研究  

Potential geographical distribution of Drosophila suzukii based on MaxEnt

作　　者：孙宏禹 李志红[1] 杨普云[2] 吴佳教[3] 肖春[4] 李萍[2] 赵中华[2] 孙佩珊[1] 赵紫华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学植物保护学院,北京100193 [2]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125 [3]广东出入境检验检疫局检验检疫技术中心,广东广州510623 [4]云南农业大学植物保护学院,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《中国植保导刊》2016年第12期66-73,共8页China Plant Protection

摘　　要：斑翅果蝇(Drosophila suzukii)是重要的水果果实害虫,近年来在全球的扩散、为害备受关注。为防控斑翅果蝇入侵,保护我国果品生产安全,采用最大墒模型(MaxEnt)与ArcGIS相结合的技术模式,在收集、整理斑翅果蝇全球地理分布信息及筛选气候变量的基础上,预测了当前及未来气候条件下该虫在全球及我国的适生区分布。结果表明,在当前气候条件下,斑翅果蝇在全球的适生范围较广、适生程度较高;我国适生区面积比为61.68%,其中,高度适生区、中度适生区和低度适生区面积比分别为7.59%、27.81%和26.28%,在2050年RCP26和RCP85的气候条件下,斑翅果蝇在全球及我国的适生范围和适生程度均呈扩大趋势,其适生区北界向北拓展。建议有关部门加强针对斑翅果蝇虫情监测、综合治理及出口检疫的工作力度。Drosophila suzukii was an important fruit insect pest and its global spread and damage had been paid more at- tention in recent years. In order to prevent invasion of D. suzukii and protect fruit production in China, we studied poten- tial geographical distributions of D. suzukii in the world and in China under current and future climate conditions. MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied as technical mode which based on collecting global geographical distributions informa- tion and screening main climate variables. Under current climate conditions, D. suzukii presented a relative wide potential geographical distribution in the world, and 61.68% areas in China with suitability which including 7.59% areas of high level, 27.8t% areas of medium level and 26.28% areas of low level. Under RCP26 and RCP85 climate conditions in 2050, potential geographical distribution of D. suzukii enlarged and northern borderline of suitable region expanded north- ward in the world as well as in China. We suggested related organizations in China to strengthen surveillance, integrated pest management and export quarantine measures of D. suzukii systematically.

关 键 词：斑翅果蝇 适生性 潜在地理分布 MAXENT ARCGIS 

分 类 号：S41-30[农业科学—植物保护] S763.41