政治风险规避与中国企业的OFDI策略选择  

Political Risk Aversion and OFDI Strategy Choice of Chinese Enterprises

作　　者：李丽丽[1] 綦建红[1] Li Lili Qi Jianhong(School of Economics, Shandong University, J i ＇nan 250100, China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《财经研究》2017年第1期110-121,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71473150);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(14YJA790045)

摘　　要：政治风险已经成为中国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)遭受损失最重要的原因之一,但是企业可以通过选择合理的投资策略来规避风险,降低损失。文章基于2004-2013年《中国境外投资企业(机构)名录》提供的OFDI企业数据,利用二值选择模型、倾向得分匹配(PSM)法和条件Logit固定效应模型分别考察了我国企业面临东道国政治风险时的策略选择问题以及投资经验对政治风险的调节作用。结果发现:东道国政治风险越高,企业越倾向于采取序贯式投资,投资经验可帮助企业规避和降低部分政治风险,提高企业在高政治风险东道国OFDI的概率;与生产性OFDI企业相比,销售宣传类OFDI企业对东道国政治风险的反应弹性较大,在具备投资经验后,对政治风险的敏感性降低。文章为中国企业"The political risks have become one of the most important reasons for OFDI losses Chinese firms suffer. However, firms can avoid risks and reduce losses by choosing a reasonable investment strategy. This paper employs the OFDI firm-level data from Direc- tory of Overseas Investment Enterprises （Institutions） from 2004 to 2013 to investigate the strategy choice of Chinese firms facing the host countries＇ political risks, and the mod- erating effect of investment experience on political risks, by using binary choice model, propensity score matching method and conditional Logit fixed effect mode[. Our findings suggest the higher the host countries＇ political risks are, the more the firms tend to adopt sequential investment, and investment experience can help firms to avoid and reduce some political risks, and improves the OFDI probability of firms in the host countries with high political risks; additionally, marketing OFDI firms have larger reaction flexibility to the host countries＇ political risks than production OFDI firms, and with investment experi- ence, the former is less sensitive to the political risks. It provides useful idea and reference for how to effectively avoid the host countries＇ political risks and raise the probability of successful M＆A in the going-out process of Chinese enterprises.

关 键 词：政治风险 序贯式投资 投资经验 倾向得分匹配(PSM) 条件Logit模型 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]