气候变化影响下的流域水循环:回顾与展望  

Impact of climate change on hydrological cycle in river basins:past,present ane future

作　　者：徐宗学[1] 刘晓婉[1] 刘浏[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院北京师范大学水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期722-730,I0011,共10页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持资助项目(91647202)

摘　　要：随着全球气候变化的影响日益加剧,气候变化对流域水循环影响的研究成为普遍关注的焦点.数理统计和水文模拟两大手段的运用贯穿于过去30余年的研究当中,本文就其中所涉及的水文气象要素趋势分析、大气环流模式(GCMs)评估、降尺度技术及其选择、水文模型及其选择、不确定性分析5大内容的研究成果进行回顾与展望,以拉萨河流域为例综合运用前述技术分析区域气候变化特征及其对流域径流的影响.结果表明,在未来经济社会发展与气候变化情景下,流域径流时空分布不均匀性更加显著,具体表现为集中性增强,这给区域防洪抗旱与水资源配置等都带来了巨大挑战.通过系统阐述如何开展气候变化对流域水循环的影响研究及所包含的关键问题,可为后续相关研究和区域水资源管理提供科学依据与决策支撑.Study on the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle in river basins has received much attention worldwide.Mathematical statistics and hydrological modeling are widely used for impact assessment.A summary of the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle in river basins is presented in five key aspects:trend analysis of hydro-meteorological factors,performance assessment on General Circulation Models(GCMs),selection of downscaling technique,selection of hydrological model and uncertainty analysis.The Lhasa River,the biggest tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River,has been selected for the case.It has been found that future runoff exhibited much more spatio-temporal heterogeneity due to significant increase of runoff during flood seasons and significant decrease in dry seasons;this will be a great challenge for flood control and drought relief in the study area.Systematic explanation and in-depth understanding of how climate change affects hydrological cycle in river basins,and associated key issues on impact assessment are of great importance for future water resources management.

关 键 词：气候变化 水循环 分布式水文模型 不确定性 雅鲁藏布江 大气环流模式（GCMs） 统计降尺度 

分 类 号：P463[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]