低油价形势下致密气与进口气竞争力分析  

Competition Analysis between Tight Gas and Imported Gas in the Context of Low Oil Price

作　　者：关春晓[1] 朱思南[2] 张静平[1] 李俏静[1] 孙玉平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院廊坊分院,河北廊坊065007 [2]大庆油田勘探开发研究院,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2016年第6期35-39,共5页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：致密气已成为我国天然气供应的重要构成,是实现天然气稳产的现实接替资源。随着"甜点区"的深入开发,接替资源面临品质变差、成本上升等挑战。近年,低油价、国内经济增速放缓等新形势倒逼天然气产业思考如何优化开发项目、权衡进口气比例、提升全局效益。为此,通过评价典型致密气田经济效益现状,与进口气进行竞争力分析,得出不同油价下致密气效益产量界限。结果表明,油价为40美元/bbl时,致密气效益产量界限为1 360×104m3;油价为50美元/bbl时其界限为934×104m3;油价为60美元/bbl时其界限为737×104m3。不同油价阶段应优先动用效益优良致密气资源,以低价进口气作为必要补充,保障天然气稳定供应,提升全局效益。Tight gas has already become an important part of China's natural gas supply and is the practical alternative resource for stable production of natural gas. As the further development of Dessert Area, alternative resource faces the challenges of poorer quality and increasing cost etc. In recent years, the new situations of low oil price and slowing growth of domestic economy have forced natural gas industry to consider how to optimize development project, balance the proportion of imported gas and improve the overall benefit. Therefore, the benefit production limits of tight gas under different oil prices are obtained by evaluating current economic benefit conditions of typical tight gas fields and analyzing the competitiveness with the imported gas. The results show that the benefit production limit of tight gas is 1,360×104m3when oil price is USD 40/bbl, 934 × 104m3 when oil price is USD 50/bbl, and737×104m3when oil price is USD 60/bbl. The tight gas resource with good benefit shall be preferred for various stages of oil prices,with low- price imported gas as necessary supplement, so as to guarantee the stable supply of natural gas and improve the overall benefit.

关 键 词：低油价 致密气 经济评价 产量界限 竞争力 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]