基于谱分析的海岬型干散货新造船舶市场周期性  

Periodic Characteristics of Ship Market of New Building Capesize Bulks Based on Spectral Analysis

作　　者：陈继红[1,2] 曾鑫[1] 刘响[2] 陈飞儿[3] CHEN Jihong ZENG Xin LIU Xiang CHEN Feier(College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime Umversity, Shanghai 201306, China Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway NJ 08854-80184, USA School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306 [2]美国罗格斯大学土木与环境工程学院,皮斯卡塔韦nj088548018 [3]上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《中国造船》2016年第4期175-185,共11页Shipbuilding of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51409157);上海市科委研究项目(15590501700);上海市教委科研创新项目(14YZ109);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJC630008);上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2016ycx003)

摘　　要：作为国际航运业运力资源的供给来源,新造船市场深受国际经济贸易周期的影响,具有周期性特征。海岬型船舶作为世界干散货海运市场的最大的船型,在世界大宗物资运输中发挥主导作用,研究其新造船市场的周期性规律具有重要意义。选取海岬型干散货新造船价格和新造船成交量的月度数据,借鉴傅立叶变换和谱分析理论,在检验序列平稳性的基础上,建立新造船市场的谱分析模型,对海岬型新造船市场的周期性波动关系进行理论研究和实证分析。在分析时间序列隐含的周期特征(特别是确定不同频率的周期成分对序列变化的影响时),谱分析是有效的数学工具。实验结果表明,新造船市场的短周期为64个月,季节性波动为8个月,周期性特征结果可为国际海运业造船投资和市场经营提供决策依据。As the supply source of the international shipping industry, the new shipbuilding market is deeply influenced by the international economic and trade cycle. Capesize ship as the biggest ship type in the world＇s dry bulk shipping market plays a leading role in the transportation of bulk materials. It＇s of great significance to study the periodicity of the capsize new building ship market. Monthly datum of new building price and contracting volume are used in this research. Using Fourier transform and spectrum analysis, we establish the spectrum analysis model on the basis of testing the stability of the data sequence to carry out theoretical research and empirical analysis of cyclical fluctuation characteristics of the capesize new building ship market. In the analysis of implicit cycle characteristics of time series, especially when determining the impact of different frequency cycle components on the sequence variation, the spectral analysis is a very effeetive mathematical tool. The result shows that the short period of the new shipbuilding market is 64 months, and the seasonal period is 8 months. These periodic features can provide a basis of decision for international shipping investment and market operation.

关 键 词：新造船市场 周期性特征 谱分析 海岬型船舶 

分 类 号：U673.2[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]