经济增长与通货膨胀的非线性关系——基于门限模型的经验研究  

The Nonlinear Relationship between Economic Growth and Inflation——An Empirical Study Based on Threshold Model

作　　者：李停[1] LI Ting(Economy Department Tongling University, Tongling Anhui 244000,Chin)

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院经济学院,安徽铜陵244000

出　　处：《德州学院学报》2016年第6期60-67,共8页Journal of Dezhou University

摘　　要：选取中国1978~2012年度数据建立门限模型,研究通货膨胀和经济增长的非线性关系.尽管对通胀和经济增长的非线性关系在学界已成为共识,但通胀率门限值的研究结果却有较大差异.在检验模型中添加金融发展解释变量,充分考虑金融发展在通胀和经济增长关系中的媒介作用.检验表明中国存在7.2%通货率的门限值,通胀率低于门限值才会刺激经济增长,而超过这一临界值会对经济产生负面影响.早期文献支持金融发展有利于经济增长,经研究表明金融发展对经济增长仅当通胀率低于门限值,才会对经济增长起到促进作用.因此,要想提高通胀对经济增长的正向效应,提升货币政策的有效性,现阶段需要完善金融发展作用于经济增长的途径和机制.This paper employs a threshold regression model to investigate the nonlinear relationship be- tween economic growth and inflation using china＇s 1978--2012 annual time series date. Despite the nonlin- ear relationship between inflation and economic growth has become a consensus but inflation threshold val- ues are wildly different. This paper considers the media role of financial development which links inflation and economic growth by added financial development as an important explanatory variable. The main re- sult is that estimated inflation threshold value equals 7.2 percent in China, exceeding which leads to nega- tive impact on growth. Earlier studies support the views that financial development may promote economic growth. However the conclusion drawn from the empirical findings suggests it can be achieved only under low and moderate inflation. To enhance inflation positive effects to growth and monetary policy efficiency, we should improve and perfect ways and mechanism which financial development affects economic growth.

关 键 词：门限模型 经济增长 通货膨胀 金融发展 托宾效应 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]