基于Copula函数的水文干旱联合概率分布研究  

The Bivariate Hydrologic Drought Distribution Based on Copula Function

作　　者：袁超[1] 宋松柏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国电力建设集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710065 [2]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2016年第6期50-53,共4页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51179160;50879070;51079037);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20110204110017)

摘　　要：双变量联合分布及重现期计算是水文干旱研究的重要内容。根据游程理论确定水文干旱事件,利用Copula函数建立干旱历时和烈度的联合分布,计算不同干旱事件的重现期。实例分析结果表明,联合分布可以考虑干旱历时与烈度不同组合情况,计算的联合重现期大于边际分布计算结果,泾河和北洛河最长历时干旱事件联合重现期为480 a和342 a。The bivariate distribution of drought and return period were an important issue in hydrological drought study. Hydrologic drought events were defined by the run theory,the bivariate distribution of drought duration and drought severity were developed by adopting Copula function in this paper,the return period formulations of drought event were proposed. The results showed that the bivariate distribution of drought took the various combinations of drought duration and drought severity into consideration. The return period of joint distribution was bigger than marginal distribution＇s. Return periods of Jing river and Beiluo river＇s drought with the longest duration were 480 years and 342 years.

关 键 词：游程理论 水文干旱 COPULA函数 双变量分布 重现期 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]