2016年中国大蒜市场形势分析及后市展望  

China's Garlic Market Situation in 2016 and Its Prospect

作　　者：王盛威[1] 熊露 韩书庆[1] 吴建寨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2016年第11期4-6,共3页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部2016年农业农村资源等监测统计项目

摘　　要：2016年以来,大蒜价格"报复性"上涨。受主产区减产、成本上涨、蒜农惜售、社会游资涌入、媒体过度宣传等因素影响,新蒜季以来,蒜价高开高走,屡破历史新高,持续近3年低价位徘徊的大蒜价格重回高位。预计大蒜供需紧张的局面会延续到2017年4月,其间大蒜价格仍将保持高位运行,待2017年新蒜上市后,大蒜供需有望恢复正常。Garlic price has risen dramatically since 2016. The price started at a high level right from the first harvest and continued to rise substantially, driving the low garlic prices in the past three years up to a record high. The major causes for this were reduced production in main producing areas, increased cost, farmers＇ propensity to hoarding, hot money speculation compounded by media hype. The tight supply situation of garlic is expected to carry over to April 2017, and consequently the garlic price will remain at high level. It was projected that garlic supply and demand situation would return to normal until the next garlic season in May 2017.

关 键 词：大蒜 价格 成本 游资炒作 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]