全球价值链、贸易增长“失速”与中国对策  

The Reason Analysis of Global Export Collapse: From the Perspective of Global Value Chain Characters

作　　者：张二震[1,2] 张晓磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院 [2]南京大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2017年第1期5-18,共14页International Business Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球经济深度调整背景下我国外贸增速变化机理及对策研究”(项目编号:16AJY018)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：通过对比G20经济体的货物出口增速与其GDP增速之间的差距,本文发现2012年后世界主要经济体货物出口增速大多低于其GDP增速,此轮出口增长"失速"并非是中国特例,而是全球性现象。本文从全球价值链分工的视角分析了造成此轮全球性出口增长"失速"的主要原因,发现近年来全球价值链分工模式出现的"天花板"现象、发展中经济体价值链分工位置升级和国内价值链的延伸以及发达经济体国内价值链的收缩都会导致世界贸易规模萎缩。本文认为,以"一带一路"战略为平台扩张全球价值链分工网络的外部空间和以自贸区战略为依托推进中国对外开放水平由"边境上"向"边境内"深化,是中国应对出口增速下降可能的对策思路。By comparing the merchandise export growth rate and the GDP growth rate of all the G20 economies, this paper finds that the great collapse of the merchandise export since 2012 does not only happen in China, instead it is actually a global phenomenon. This paper is dedicated to explore the reasons of this round of global merchandise export collapse especially from the global value chain perspective, and we proved that the emergence of the ＂ceiling＂ phenomenon of the global value chain, the upgrading and extension of the global value chain in the developing economies and the shrinking of the global value chain in the developed economies are all responsible for this round of global merchandise export collapse. As a result, we propose that expanding the geographical scope of the global value chain by carrying forward the ＂One Belt One Road＂ strategy, and deepening the level of the global value chain by promoting the ＂Free Trade Agreement＂ policy should help China＇s export revive soon.

关 键 词：货物出口 贸易衰退 全球价值链 国际对比 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]