增长背景下我国粮食进口需求及弹性分析——基于主要品种的有界协整分析  

The Analysis on Grain Import Demand and the Elasticity under Growth:An Bounded Cointegration Analysis Based on the Main Varieties

作　　者：王锐[1] 王新华[1] 杜江[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2017年第1期61-69,103,共10页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科青年项目"基于风险与收益分析的我国粮食‘适度进口’问题研究"(项目编号:14CJY081);湖北省教育厅人文社科重点项目"我国粮食进口增长趋势及风险分析"(项目编号:16D064);国家自科青年项目"农业发展的低碳转型:进程评估;影响因素及推进策略"(项目编号:71203170)

摘　　要：2003年以来,我国粮食进口需求不断增长,粮食进出口大致平衡的状态已发生了根本改变,粮食总量和主要粮食品种已经全面净进口,进口的快速增长引发了关于我国粮食安全的担忧,进口需求及增长原因值得深入探讨。笔者分析了我国粮食进口需求的增长趋势及原因,并选取了2003—2013年的数据,建立粮食进口需求模型,并采用有界协整的方法,重点分析了小麦、玉米和大米三大品种的进口需求,以及各自的收入和价格弹性。研究发现:在长期,国际国内相对价格、收入以及粮食进口需求三者之间存在着稳定均衡的关系;相对价格对进口需求的影响更为显著,价格下降,玉米、大米以及小麦的进口需求会显著增加,其中小麦最敏感;在长期,收入增长将进一步促进玉米进口增长,但对大米和小麦的进口影响有限。与短期相比,长期内相对价格对各品种的进口需求影响更大。因此,我国需要从长期和短期两个期间,国际国内两个市场,并基于品种差异来防范进口过快增长风险。Since 2003, China＇s grain import demand is growing, the nearly balanced state of grain import and export has undergone a fundamental change. The grain and grain staples experienced fully net imported. The rapid growth of imports raised concerns about China＇s food safety. The demand for grain imports and its growth is worthy of further exploration. We study on the trend of China＇s grain import demand and reasons. Based on the data from 1992 to 2013, we set up the model of import demand, use the bounded eointegration analysis to study the import de- mand and the import demand elasticity. The study finds that there is a balanced relationship between the relative prices of international and domestic, income and China＇s grain import demand in the long ternr The study also finds that the long-term price elasticities of import demands for rice, wheat and maize are all bigger than the long- term income elasticities. If the relative prices decrease, the demand for the three varieties will increase significant- ly, but the variety that is most sensitive to price changes is wheat. In the long term, the growth of economy will fur- ther promote the growth of maize imports, but with limited impact on the imports of rice and wheat. Compared with the short-term price elasticities, long-term price elasticities of the three varieties are bigger, and the corn is lack of short-term price elasticity. The long-term price elasticity of flee, corn and wheat are all greater than short-term price elasticity, and the corn is lack of short-term import price elasticity of demand. Therefore, in different periods of short and long term, in the domestic and international markets, and based on the differences in different varie- ties, we should prevent the risk from the excessive growth of imports.

关 键 词：粮食进口 需求 弹性 价格 收入 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]