基于主成分分析的城市防洪减灾能力综合评价  

Comprehensive evaluation of urdan flood control and disaster reduction ability based on principal component analysis

作　　者：王一新[1,2] 苑希民[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]河南理工大学土木工程学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第6期1-8,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51509180);2015年度河南省高等学校重点科研项目(15A570007)~~

摘　　要：选择北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津、重庆、武汉、成都、南京、杭州、沈阳、西安、郑州、哈尔滨、青岛、苏州、乌鲁木齐、石家庄、三亚、银川、济南等21座城市作为评价样本,选取17个指标构建了城市防洪减灾能力综合指标体系,采用主成分分析法提取了5个主成分因子,通过回归分析建立了城市防洪减灾能力主成分因子得分函数模型,对上述21座城市的防洪减灾能力进行了综合评价,并计算出各个城市的得分和排名,从而使客观衡量城市防洪减灾能力各主成分变量指标间的差距,进而找到城市防洪减灾能力较强和较弱的城市成为可能,可为确定城市防洪减灾管理对策措施提供参考。Twenty one cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Xi＇an, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Wuhan, Qingdao, Suzhou, Urumqi, Shijiazhuang, Sanya, Yinchuan, Jinan were selected as the samples and 17 indexes were selected to establish the comprehensive index system of flood control and disaster reduction ability of cities in China. Five principal component factors were extracted by principal component analysis. Through regression analysis, urban flood control and disaster reduction capacity principal component factor score function model was established to comprehensively evaluate and calculate all the cityies＇ score and ranking of urban flood control capacity in China. Therefore to evaluate objectively the difference between every cities flood control and disaster reduction capacity principal component factors and find out the cities with stronger and weaker flood control and disaster reduction capacity become possible. The paper may provide a reference for determing urban flood control and disaster reduction management measure.

关 键 词：城市 防洪减灾能力 指标体系 主成分分析 综合评价 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]