中国水资源利用特征及未来趋势分析  

Characteristics and Future Trends of Water Resources Utilization in China

作　　者：吴芳[1] 张新锋[2] 崔雪锋[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875 [2]唐山师范学院资源管理系,河北唐山063000 [3]北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京100875 [4]新疆大学资源与环境学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2017年第1期30-39,共10页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271542);国家自然科学基金项目(41271542;41661144006);973全球变化专项(2015CB953602)

摘　　要：首先对我国过去60多年的用水数据进行整理分析,得出水资源利用时间分布特征:农业用水一直占主导地位,1949—1980年为快速增长期,1980年以后为稳定期甚至下降期;工业用水和生活用水则是在1980年后随着经济快速发展进入激增期。然后,对我国水资源利用空间特征进行分析可知:总用水、生活用水和工业用水呈现南高北低的态势;农业用水和生态环境补水用水呈现北高南低的态势;东、中、西部的用水效率呈现出一定差距,并呈现不同的变化态势。最后,运用情景分析法,分较高、适中和较低3种方案对我国未来10~15 a的需水量进行预测。Through analyzing the water consumption data in the past six decades in China, the temporal and spatial features of water consumption were obtained.In temporal scale, agricultural water consumption, as a dominant sec- tor, increased rapidly from 1949 to 1980, and kept quite stable and even decreased after 1980; whereas industrial water consumption has increased rapidly in response to economic development since 1980. In spatial scale, the total water use, domestic water use and industrial water use in the south were much more than those in the north ; the ag- ricultural water use and eeo-environmental replenishment water in the south were less than those in the north; and the water use efficiency of the east, middle and west part of China displayed some gap and presented different change trends. Furthermore, the water demands in the future 10-15 years inscenarios of high, moderate and low consumption were predicted respectively using the scenario analysis method

关 键 词：水资源利用 需水量 变化趋势 需水预测 整理分析 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]