基于马尔可夫过程的电力系统连锁故障解析模型及概率计算方法  

A Power System Cascading Outage Analytic Model and Outage Probability Calculation Method Based on Markov Process

作　　者：程林[1] 刘满君[1] 何剑[2] 孙华东[2] 易俊[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系),北京市海淀区100084 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京市海淀区100192

出　　处：《电网技术》2017年第1期130-136,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51177078);国家电网公司科技项目(融合在线状态信息的设备故障概率分析及电网薄弱环节识别方法研究)~~

摘　　要：提出一种基于马尔可夫过程的电力系统连锁故障解析模型及概率计算方法,该方法区分电力系统不同元件物理特性,结合系统元件所在电力系统状态信息,分析元件停运概率。在元件停运模型基础之上,考虑连锁故障演化过程中故障事件间的相关性,以及故障序列对故障概率、故障后果的影响,通过马尔可夫过程描述连锁故障转移过程,搜索系统在不同初始故障条件下的连锁故障事件,生成电力系统连锁故障全系统状态空间;与此同时,分析系统不同状态下的转移过程,通过相关元件停运模型分析系统转移概率,计算得到不同规模连锁故障的概率。最后,在RTS79系统中验证此方法,结果表明该方法可发现系统在不同初始故障下的连锁故障事件,并计算连锁故障概率,发现系统中的关键元件,以便基于此提出相应的系统改进措施,预防连锁故障发生,降低系统风险,提高电力系统供电能力。This paper proposed a power system cascading outage analytic model and outage probability calculation method based on Markov process. This model firstly identifies different physical features of components and analyzes component outage probability combining with current power system operation information. Interactions between cascading outage events and influence of outage sequences are well analyzed. A Markov process model is proposed to describe state transitions of the cascading outages. Corresponding system state space and transition probability calculation methods are then designed. With this model, cascading outage events under given initial outage and outage probability of different scale of cascading outage can be obtained. At last, this model is validated in RTS79 system. Results show that this cascading outage model can find out possible cascading outage events under different initial outage and calculate outage probability. It can furthermore locate critical point of power system. Countermeasures could then be proposed to prevent the system from cascading outage.

关 键 词：电力系统 连锁故障 运行可靠性 

分 类 号：TM72[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]