N-K模型下煤矿重大瓦斯事故风险耦合致因分析  

Analysis of Risk Coupling in the Major Coal Mine Gas Accident under N-K Model

作　　者：乔万冠[1] 李新春[1] 刘全龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2017年第2期196-200,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目"多因素耦合作用下煤矿事故复杂性机理及其风险度量研究"(71271206)

摘　　要：研究耦合视角下的煤矿瓦斯事故致因模型,从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度来分析瓦斯风险因素之间的耦合关系,并利用N-K模型对2000—2014年所发生的375起煤矿重大瓦斯事故风险耦合程度进行度量,结果表明,耦合过程中随着参与因素的增多耦合程度逐渐增大;管理因素和人的因素在煤矿瓦斯事故风险耦合过程中参与最多,造成的风险较大。因此,在煤矿瓦斯事故风险耦合过程中,应加强对关键因素管理,避免在系统脆弱处发生多因素耦合作用。The paper carries out the research on coal mine gas accident causation model based on risk coupling which is di- vided into single factor, two -factor and multi -factor coupling to analyze the coupling relationships. Then, the N -K model is used to analyze the probability and the degree of coupling in 375 major gas accidents between years 2000 -2014. The results indicate that ： the degree of coupling is gradually increased with the increase of the number of risk factors ; the management factors are most involved in the process of coal mine gas explosion risk coupling. Therefore, in the process of coal mine gas accidents, the management of key factors should be strengthened to avoid coupling the vulnerability of the system.

关 键 词：重大瓦斯事故 风险耦合 致因模型 N—K模型 

分 类 号：TD77[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]