完成“811汇改”：人民币汇率形成机制改革方向分析  

RMB Exchange Rate Formation Reform:Shifting from a Crawling Peg Arrangement to a Floating Regime

作　　者：余永定[1] 肖立晟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2017年第1期23-41,共19页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金课题(基金批准号:16ZDA031,13AJL008)资助

摘　　要：2015年"811汇改"是央行推动汇率机制市场化,实行汇率制度由"类爬行安排"到浮动汇率制度过渡的一次重要尝试。然而,经过三天的试验后,央行放弃了原定的汇率改革目标。此后,央行提出了新的中间价形成机制,在"参考前日收盘价决定当日中间价"的基础上,引入了"稳定24小时篮子货币"因素。在新的汇率形成机制中,由于美元指数和其他货币的变动难以预测,人民币汇率变动不确定性显著上升,在一定程度上削弱了单边投机力量。然而,现行汇率形成机制并不能扭转人民币贬值趋势,也不能消除人民币贬值预期,同时妨碍了央行根据国内经济的基本面实施独立的货币政策,而且还会因为人为的"双向波动"造成外汇储备的损耗。我们主张尽快实现停止对外汇市场的干预,让人民币自由浮动。消除人民币贬值预期的唯一办法就是让人民币汇率市场化。希望央行能沿"811汇改"的思路,在做好预案的基础上,早日完成中国汇率制度改革。The exchange rate reform initiated on 11th Aug,2015 is an important attempt by the PBOC to transform China’s exchange rate regime from a crawling peg system to a floating regime.However,three days after the experiment,the PBOC abandoned the attempted exchange rate reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under the new mechanism,the central parity rate of the renminbi against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the renminbi exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and its closing price against the dollar in the previous day.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate since the movement of the dollar and other basket currencies is unpredictable.As a result,the one-way bet on renminbi expectations,to a certain extent,has been weakened.However,the yuan's current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of renminbi devaluation,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations;meanwhile,it has also affected the effectiveness of central bank’s independent monetary policy in accordance with domestic economic fundamentals;moreover,the artificial two-way fluctuation has also led to large-scale losses of foreign exchange reserves.The article argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg system is not sustainable and the PBOC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible while accomplishing the unfinished reform in an urgent manner.

关 键 词：811汇改 人民币汇率形成机制改革 外汇市场干预 篮子货币 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]