奥巴马时代美国阿富汗战略的回顾  

A Review of America's Afghan Strategy during the Obama Era

作　　者：何明[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学政治学系

出　　处：《南亚研究》2016年第4期115-136,共22页South Asian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年基金规划项目"上海合作组织所面临的阿富汗问题挑战研究"(项目编号:11YJCGJW007)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：随着特朗普当选美国总统,奥巴马执政时期也将近尾声。在阿富汗问题上,奥巴马政府的战略值得关注和研究。本文认为,首先,要对美国主导的阿富汗重建行动进行客观的评估,具体而言,要将美国在阿富汗的战略目标的实现和阿富汗重建的实际效果区别对待,要客观地将美国撤离阿富汗的行动和阿富汗历史上发生的帝国退出行动做比较。其次,要关注考察美国下一步阿富汗战略安排的几个参考坐标,即"新阿巴战略",公布美军撤出时间表、伊斯坦布尔会议、第二次波恩会议、北约芝加哥峰会、美阿伙伴关系和2015阿富汗和平过渡路线图。再次,美国未来对阿富汗的战略安排目标是"撤而不走",在减少对阿富汗战略资源投入的前提下,继续将阿富汗视为一个战略要冲,并用新的形式进行控制。本文认为,美国的阿富汗战略始终具有整体性和延续性,这一点尤其值得关注。With Donald Trump's election as the President of the United States,President Obama's Administration is now winding down. At this juncture,it is particularly important to carefully review and study the Obama Administration's strategy vis- à- vis Afghanistan. It is argued here that an objective evaluation of the American- led reconstruction of Afghanistan is warranted,and in particular that its progress in achieving America's strategic aims,and the objective results and impact of reconstruction as seen on the ground should be considered in turn.In this respect,a comparison can be made between America's withdrawal from Afghanistan and the historical Afghan withdrawal from colonial rule. Second,it is important to consider America 's next steps in its strategic plans towards Afghanistan,and in particular the so- called New Af- Pak Strategy,the public timetable for withdrawal of American troops,the Istanbul Conference,the Second Bonn Conference,the 2012 NATO Summit in Chicago,the US- Afghanistan Partnership,and the Afghan Peace Process Roadmap to 2015. Looking into the future,America 's strategic plans with respect to Afghanistan revolve around'withdrawal,not retreat. ' While conditional on the reduced investment of strategic resources in Afghanistan,the country will continue to be treated as a strategic priority,and America will continue to exert control through new tactics. It is argued here that continuity and integrity are key characteristics of America's strategy towards Afghanistan.

关 键 词：美国 阿富汗 战略调整 过渡路线图 战略反思 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]