汉中市地质灾害气象风险预警服务效益评估方法  

Evaluation Method of Geological Hazard Meteorological Risk Early Warning Service Benefit in Hanzhong City

作　　者：孟茹[1] 郑薇薇[1] 胡江波[1] 黄泽群[1] 孟凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省汉中市气象局,陕西汉中723000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第36期210-212,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：陕西省气象局科技创新基金计划项目(2014M-34)

摘　　要：在统计2011—2014年汉中市地质灾害气象风险预警产品、检验质量、跟踪服务效果的基础上,探讨定量评估地质灾害气象风险预警服务的方法,提取预报准确率、预报服务覆盖率、预报服务时效、可能预防能力4个评估因子建立评估模型。通过实例评估,得出汉中市气象灾害风险预警服务效益评估为72%,说明风险预警准确率和服务时效是提高地质灾害气象风险预警服务水平的两项重要指标。Based on the statistics of the geological disaster meteorological risk early warning products, quality inspection, tracking service effect in Hanzhong City during 2011 -2014, the quantitative evaluation method of geological hazard meteorological risk early warning service was discussed, four evaluation factors including forecast accuracy, forecast service coverage, forecast service limitation, possible preventive a- bility were adopted to set up evaluation model. By an example evahlation of Hanzhong, meteorological disaster risk early warning service bene- fit was 72%, indicating risk early warning accuracy and service efficiency are two important indicators to improve service level of geological hazard meteorological risk early warning.

关 键 词：地质灾害 气象风险 预警服务 效益评估 汉中市 

分 类 号：S429[农业科学—植物保护]