CMIP5气候模式对东亚地区对流和层云降水量和降水发生频率的模拟评估  

Evaluation of CMIP5 Climate Models on Simulating the Amount and Frequency of Convective and Stratiform Precipitation in East Asia

作　　者：孙悦[1,2] 吴统文[2] 金霞 李肇新[2,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]法国原子能和替代能源委员会气候和环境科学实验室,法国伊维特河畔吉夫91191 [4]法国国家科学研究中心/皮埃尔和玛丽.居里大学动力气象实验室,法国巴黎75005

出　　处：《高原气象》2016年第6期1524-1539,共16页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602100);公益性(气象)行业专项项目(GYHY201306020)

摘　　要：利用融合降水数据和TRMM卫星3A25月平均降水数据,评估了参与第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的19个海气耦合模式模拟的东亚地区降水总量、对流和层云降水量和降水发生频率的结果。结果表明：（1）各模式都能较好地模拟东亚地区降水的气候态,高分辨率和中等分辨率模式能够模拟出喜马拉雅山南坡、中国南方以及洋面上的强降水中心,但低分辨率模式模拟结果较差;各模式对秋季和冬季降水量模拟结果较好,与观测值的空间平均相关系数均〉0.7,而春季和夏季的模拟结果相对较差,相关系数分别为0.50和0.61。（2）TRMM卫星数据表明,对流降水中心主要分布在菲律宾岛、孟加拉湾和青藏高原南部,而层云降水中心主要分布在青藏高原南部、长江下游地区、中国东海以及孟加拉湾。对于二者的模拟,对流降水的模拟较好,层云降水的模拟存在热带地区降水量偏小的问题,高、中分辨率模式的模拟能力要高于低分辨模式。（3）对于东亚地区总降水发生频率的模拟,有13个模式模拟的降水频率〉60%;对于不同降水强度发生频率的模拟,强度在0.001~1 mm·h-1之间绝大多数模式模拟的发生频率最高,而超过1.0 mm·h-1的降水事件都相当少;（4）对于层云降水发生频率的模拟,高、中分辨率模式的结果与多模式平均结果更为接近,但对于对流降水,高分辨率模式和中等分辨率模式模拟能力并没有明显优于低分辨模式。总体而言,高、中分辨率模式对于东亚地区降水模拟效果更好,因而提高模式水平分辨率成为改善气候模式模拟东亚地区降水能力的重要途径。Based on the hourly merged precipitation data and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（ TRMM）3A25 monthly averaged precipitation data,the simulation performances about the total precipitation amount,amount and frequency of precipitation（ both convective and stratiform） in East Asia in 19 coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models of CMIP5 have been assessed. Results indicate that：（ 1） All models can simulate the basic pattern of precipitation in East Asia,high-and medium-resolution models can simulate the main precipitation centers： southern slope of the Himalayas,Southern China and the adjacent ocean areas. But low-resolution models can hardly do so. Total precipitation amount in autumn and winter is better simulated than in other seasons. The spatial correlation coefficients of the total precipitation between the simulation and observation exceed 0. 7 for autumn and winter,but only 0. 50 and 0. 61 for spring and summer.（ 2） According to TRMM,main convective precipitation centers lie over the Philippines,Bay of Bengal and southern of the Himalayas,while stratiform precipitation centers lie on the southern of the Himalayas,downstream of the Yangtze River,East China Sea and Bay of Bengal. As for simulations,high-and medium-resolution models are better than low-resolution models. By comparing the multi-model average with the TRMMdata,convective precipitation amount is better simulated,but there are too little stratiform precipitations in the tropics.（ 3） As for the frequency of total precipitation in East Asia,results from 13 models exceed 60%. For the frequency of different precipitation intensities,the frequency located between 0. 001 ~ 1 mm ·h-1is the highest in most of the models,while the frequency of intensity which is greater than 1. 0 mm ·h-1is quite small.（ 4） For the stratiform precipitation frequency,high-and medium-resolution models are closer to the multi-model average,but for the convective precipitation,high-and medium-resolution models are not significantly better than low-

关 键 词：CMIP5 对流降水 层云降水 模拟评估 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]